Grace Brown (FDJ Nouvelle-Aquitaine Futuroscope) goes into the final two stages of The Women's Tour, knowing that a solid performance on the penultimate stage will be key to securing victory overall.
Rival Kasia Niewiadoma (Canyon-SRAM) sits in second place overall, four seconds behind the Australian Stage 4 winner , while Longo Borghini is third on the general classification, 17 seconds adrift. The three contested the finale of yesterday's stage and will likely have to face off again for the win atop Black Mountain on Stage 5.
The Course
The Women's Tour stage 5 profile
Starting at sea level and finishing with a 7.2-kilometre climb to the top of Black Mountain, Stage 5 will provide a thrilling battleground for the general classification riders. While organiser-claimed gradients of up to 21 per cent sure to give some riders double-vision, those who can lift their eyes away from the road will be greeted with stunning views of the Welsh coast.
The Black Mountain was first visited in 2019 when the final stage to Pembrey Country Park – where Friday's stage will start – went over the climb, ultimately won in a reduced bunch finish by Amy Pieters.
The climb is a consistent one, despite the claims of 21 per cent gradients, the climb is remarkable for barely fluctuating from its grinding slope up to the finish. If any climb of this length should suit Brown, it's this style of ascent where she can engage her time trial mode, with less of the accelerations and pace changes of a pure climber required.
The contenders
Brown is in the strongest position at present, but she'll know that will count for little if she is distanced at all on the climb.
"Obviously, I want to be up there on the final climb, I think that's what it's going to come down to. I'm happy now that I've got a little bit of buffer and time, if I finish with the top climbers then I can hopefully retain the jersey," Brown said after Stage 4.
The 29-year-old from Camperdown climbs very well, better than she is given credit for as she is regarded as a classics/time trial exponent.
Truly, there aren't that many chances for riders to test themselves on long climbs, but Brown is rarely far away from the best. Perhaps her best recent marker was at the Giro Rosa in 2021 where she was third in the mountain time trial on a significantly harder climb than this one.
That day she finished 13 seconds ahead of Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (SD-Worx) who shapes as one of the big threats here. The South African mountain goat always looks to make use of her phenomenal power-to-weight ratio on the hard ascents.
This will be easier than she would like, but with her retirement coming at the end of the season and already a host of results behind her, there's little to lose for the 36-year-old. Expect to see her attack a number of times as she tries to overturn an 18-second deficit to Brown.
Niewiadoma is the closest to Brown at present, and also has a long history of competing in the hardest climbing races. She's often found one or two riders better than her in the biggest races, but it's no shame to beat by the likes of Annemiek van Vleuten, Anna van der Breggen and Demi Vollering, none of whom will be there to stop the Polish star.
With just four seconds to claw back on Brown, she will be the biggest threat to the Australian. The Canyon-SRAM team also boasts Elise Chabbey at 17 seconds down, she'll be a threat as well with her past few years of impressive form and attacking mindset.
While Niewiadoma's experience is plentiful, it doesn't rival Elisa Longo Borghini, the Italian all-rounder. While the Paris-Roubaix champion has tended away from climbing in recent years, focusing on the classics, there isn't anyone better suited to a hard race than the Trek-Segafredo star if the pace is tough early.
A wildcard may be Australian Alex Manly (BikeExchange-Jayco). She is in a purple patch of form at present after dominating the Thuringen Tour, and sits fourth overall, just 13 seconds behind her compatriot.
She looked the strongest of the break yesterday but perhaps overcommitted on her turns at the front of the attack, perhaps thinking that teammate Kristen Faulkner would be able to neutralise any moves and take it to a small group sprint, where Manly would be favoured. Despite her sprint and track background, Manly has been climbing very well recently, after a strong classics campaign, she took out a very hilly stage to secure her overall Thuringen win. That day actually contained more vertical metres than this challenge, with steeper gradients, though it was against a lesser field and the climbs weren't as long.
All in all, it will be a fascinating battle for the overall win on Black Mountain as first the teams and then the favourites will engage in battle for the leader's jersey.
The Women’s Tour continues tonight with Stage 5, the queen stage of the 2022 race, finishing atop Black Mountain in Wales. Watch from 8.30pm AEST on SBS On Demand.
