KEY POINTS:
- Republicans and monarchists expect a republic referendum regardless of the Voice outcome.
- Both camps believe the two referendums are significantly different.
- There is a view in Labor that a No vote in October would dent the chances of a republic vote.
Key republican and monarchist leaders expect Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to push ahead with a referendum on a republic, even if Australians reject an Indigenous Voice to Parliament.
Albanese has flagged the prospect of a referendum for an Australian republic in Labor's second term if it is re-elected, appointing Matt Thistlethwaite as the country's first-ever assistant minister for the republic last year.
But the Voice vote has been framed as a potential body blow for the Australian republican movement, with fears failure may suppress Labor's appetite for other constitutional reform.
Anthony Albanese appeared to temper talk of a republic referendum earlier this year. Source: AAP / Joel Carrett
"My priority is constitutional recognition. I can't imagine going forward ... that we should be having another referendum on the republic before that occurs," he said in May.
There is a view within Labor that Australians rejecting the Voice would significantly shift the dynamics, and the conditions may not be right for another referendum, particularly with cost-of-living pressures being prioritised.
But both camps have told SBS News they expect another referendum whether or not Australians reject the Voice, and are already laying the groundwork for the campaign.
Both camps braced for republic campaign
No government has tried to alter the constitution since Australians rejected a republic in 1999, and no referendum has passed without bipartisan support.
But any hopes of cross-party backing for the Voice were ruined in April, when the Liberals joined their junior Coalition partners - the Nationals - in opposing the body. Support for the Yes camp appears to have been on a steady decline since.
Australian Republic Movement (ARM) national director Isaac Jeffrey believed Albanese was "absolutely committed" to a republic referendum whether or not Australians reject the Voice, and said the two issues were driven by different dynamics.
While the Liberal party room was overwhelmingly opposed to the Voice, Jeffrey - a Nationals member - insisted there were many more republicans in Coalition ranks "than some people might appreciate".
Anthony Albanese appointed Matt Thistlethwaite (left) as Australia's first-ever Assistant Minister for the Republic. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch
"I guess the worst case scenario would be for them to lock in as a No position [on the republic], as they did with the Voice," he said.
"But I just think the support within the party is too high for that to happen, so at minimum we'd be asking for a conscience vote."
Despite strong initial backing, republican division over the model proposed by then-prime minister John Howard helped sink the movement in 1999.
But the reverse dynamic appears to be playing out in the Voice debate, with the No camp effectively seizing on what it calls a lack of detail to cast doubt on the proposal.
The ARM released its own model for a republic last year, and Jeffrey insisted: "People want to know what they're voting for".
"[Our model] a starting point in conversations now with the broader public ... The big lesson is to make sure you're bringing people along for the ride," he said.
"Whatever the model is that we all end up landing on, it'll be well and truly out there. The details will be out there before the day."
Monarchists confident of repeating success
Support for a republic has fluctuated, with a Resolve poll showing just 46 per cent of Australians backed the idea after Queen Elizabeth's death last year.
Australian Monarchist League chairman Eric Abetz also believes Albanese will push ahead with the idea, but he did not expect him to learn the lessons of this year's campaign.
Abetz - a former Liberal senator - agreed the prime minister would "have to bring a specific model" to any future referendum, rather than "a fairly hollow, fairy-floss-type question without any substance".
Eric Abetz believes Labor will push ahead with a republic referendum, regardless of the outcome on 14 October. Source: AAP / Ethan James
"Instinctively, a lot of people are going to say Yes to that, because they haven't really thought about the detail. But as soon as they do get the detail, they peel off and say the system is exceptionally good."
Abetz believed a genuine desire to improve outcomes for Indigenous people meant the "response to the initial vibe was Yes", before Australians started to question how the Voice would actually operate.
And he believed the No camp in the republican debate would be equipped with a simple, compelling pitch: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".
"With the republic discussion, there's no problem that needs fixing. At least for the Voice, the advocates were able to highlight a problem that does genuinely need fixing, but the fix being proposed doesn't convince people," he said.
Jenny Hocking believes there is "no doubt" a republic vote will be held if Australians back the Voice. Source: AAP / James Ross
The level of detail required is different: historian
Despite seemingly facing an uphill battle in the polls, historian Jenny Hocking believed there was "still a window for the [Voice] referendum to succeed".
In that case, Hocking said there was "no doubt" a republic referendum would be held in Labor's second term.
She believed a model for any Australian republic would be brought ahead of a vote, describing it as “very, very different” to the Voice in terms of detail required.
“[The Voice] is a very simple change to the constitution that simply enables an advisory voice to be created by the parliament. It's a very different question for a republic," she said.
The Voice referendum is broad, simply establishing an advisory body with future governments able to amend details over time.
But Hocking said there would be specific questions about the republic to be resolved before Australians voted.
“That question of the power of the head of state - whether it's called a governor-general or a president - is always going to be the critical question. I think that may well be the big priority in terms of a republic referendum."
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