If Russia invades Ukraine, it will suffer heavy sanctions from the West. What will they look like?

World leaders have warned Russia it will cop heavy sanctions if it invades Ukraine. But what are sanctions, when will they be imposed and what impact will they have?

A Russian sniper soldier during a tactical drill in Tambov Oblast, Russia.

A Russian sniper soldier during a tactical drill in Tambov Oblast, Russia. Source: Getty Images/Russian Defence Ministry Handout

The world continues to watch intently for Russia's next steps as the United States warns an invasion of Ukraine is imminent. 

US special intelligence says Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered his troops to enter Ukraine, with three-quarters of the number of troops needed to mount an invasion already assembled near the country's borders. 

The West has mostly remained united in its resolve to place economic pressures against Russia, namely in the form of sanctions, against Russia in the event it storms Ukraine.
But what kind of sanctions will Russia face, and how will this impact the nation and Europe's supply chain as a whole?

Which countries have said they will sanction Russia?

The US and the United Kingdom have been the most staunch in their demand to impose sanctions against Russia. 

The European Union have also expressed their willingness but all 27 member nations must agree on what exactly the sanctions will be.

'What are you waiting for?'

This is a question on the minds of many, who are puzzled as to why US President Joe Biden has not punished Russia already if he is "convinced" an invasion will take place. 

This includes Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who expressed his frustration at the West for its delay in taking action. 

Mr Zelensky said waiting to impose sanctions after an invasion would be too late for Ukraine's protection.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a statement during the 58th Munich Security Conference.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a statement during the 58th Munich Security Conference. Source: Getty Images
"You tell me 100 per cent that there will be war in a few days’ time. What are you waiting for?" Mr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. 

"We will not need your sanctions after there is a bombardment, or after our state is shot at, or if we have no more borders, we do not have an economy, or parts of our state is occupied." 

However the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said imposing sanctions before any invasion could be counterproductive.

"The purpose of the sanctions in the first instance is to try to deter Russia from going to war, " Mr Blinken told CNN on Sunday.

"As soon as you trigger them that deterrence is gone."
Similarly, Australia said it will not impose any sanctions until an invasion takes place. 

However, Independent Senator Rex Patrick has backed Mr Zelensky's calls for immediate action, calling on the federal government to punish Russia before a potential invasion.
“Russia’s brazen military threats against Ukraine are already more than enough justification for Australia to take sanctions action without delay," he said. 

"Western democracies should act accordingly, backing rhetoric with action.”

What kind of sanctions would they be?

No details have been confirmed as to what exact sanctions Russia will be slapped with - mainly because this is information to be shared only if Russia proceeds with its invasion. 

This is the sentiment echoed by Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz, who said the West should be less forthcoming about its proposed sanctions in the event diplomatic talks with Russia are successful in defusing the rising tensions against Ukraine. 

"We want to go in the direction where peace is having a chance," Mr Scholz said. 

But at the Munich Security Council, European Union Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the EU, US, UK and Canada are co-ordinating on a "robust and comprehensive package" of possible financial sanctions against Russia.
"In case Russia strikes, we will limit the access to financial markets for the Russian economy and [impose] export controls that will stop the possibility for Russia to modernise and diversify its economy."

British prime minister Boris Johnson said the US and Britain would cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds if the Kremlin orders the invasion.

He said the Western sanctions would go much further than he has previously suggested in public.

Have countries placed sanctions on Russia before?

The US, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia are among some of the countries that have enforced 'Magnitsky-style' laws to impose sanctions against individuals and organisations. 

These countries - including Australia - have placed sanctions against Russia since 2014 when its troops annexed Crimea, a southern province of Ukraine.

Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade website says Australia's sanctions were imposed "in response to the Russian threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine".
, which provides the Minister of Foreign Affairs special powers to impose economic and financial sanctions against governments, organisations or individuals that present “threats to international peace and security”. 

These measures include placing travel restrictions on offenders, seizing their assets and restricting investments within Australia’s financial institutions.

The existence of these laws could certainly aid in further sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine, Mr Patrick said, and the time to put them into practice is now. 

“Our new sanctions regime is explicitly designed to allow the Australian Government to be proactive in relation to threats of military aggression, not merely respond after an attack has commenced," Mr Patrick said.

What impact could this have?

The impacts are far-reaching and could be detrimental to both Russia and Europe. 

This is because Europe is largely dependent on Russia's energy sector - 40 per cent of Russian energy company Gazprom supplies Europe's gas needs. 

Ms von der Leyen conceded Europe's reliance on Russia's gas is "not sustainable" and has liaised with the US to discuss options for alternative gas supplies. 

If Europe manages to secure energy resources independent of Russia, it could potentially crush Russia's market.

If the US and the UK make the bold move to block Russia from accessing dollars and pounds, it would cut Russia off from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system - crippling the country's ability to conduct global trade. 

But there has yet to be a united agreement on these terms from world leaders, nor will there be any real clarity on such tough measures.

With the Kremlin holding its cards close to its chest, there remain no clear answers from the West. Only if, or when, an invasion takes place will the true nature of sanctions be announced, and what impact this may have. 


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6 min read
Published 21 February 2022 6:53pm
By Rayane Tamer
Source: SBS News


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