The United States government has warned Russia's invasion of Ukraine is imminent.
US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday an attack could occur "any day now", and would likely start with "a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks".
In response to the potential threat, the Australian government evacuated its Kyiv embassy over the weekend as tensions continue to ramp up on the Russia-Ukraine border.
Despite political analysts suggesting an invasion, should it happen, will occur after Beijing's Winter Olympics on 20 February, Mr Sullivan has warned the world it may happen as soon as Wednesday.
"An invasion could begin at any time should [Russian President] Vladimir Putin decide to order it," he said.
Here is a guide that will answer the key questions around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as where Australia fits into this potential war.
How did this conflict begin?
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia began in 1991 when Ukraine split away from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and formed its independence.
In standing alone as a country for the first time, Ukraine's new political perspective was uncomfortable for Russia, emeritus professor in Ukrainian Studies at Monash University, Marko Pavlyshyn, said.
"Ukraine has remained on its democratic trajectory for the whole of those 30 years and is in many ways, apart from the Baltic states, the only remaining genuinely democratic country on that enormous Eurasian landmass," he told SBS News.
Russia's conservative governance, on the other hand, has exercised its policies in a starkly different way and can be described as possessing the antithesis of western liberal values.
Professor Palvyshyn says Russia's vision to "restore its former place as a reinvented Soviet Union" is marred by its immediate neighbour's democratic policies.
Map of eastern Europe. Source: SBS News
But why now?
While tensions between Ukraine and Russia have resurfaced since late 2021 in what may seem like a newly emerging situation, this is not the case.
In 2014, Ukrainian (and pro-Russia) president Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown after he refused to sign a European Union association agreement. He cited pressures placed on him by the Russian government to place distance between the EU and Ukraine.
After Mr Yanukovych fled Ukraine as civilians revolted against his government, Russia annexed Crimea, a southern province of Ukraine.
"Since that time, Russia has been pressuring Ukraine in many ways that are designed to destabilise it, divide it and make its democratic project appear unviable," Professor Palvyshyn said.
"[Russia wants to put] a stop to Ukraine's wish to integrate into western structures like the European Union, and NATO and to restore and hegemony over Ukrainian foreign affairs and Ukrainian politics in general."
Now, as Russia amasses more than 100,000 soldiers along the Ukraine border, Professor Palvyshyn said the current events are a "radical escalation of that ongoing conflict".
What does Vladimir Putin want?
Despite many meetings with several world leaders and US special intelligence sources, Mr Putin and his government continue to deny any intention to invade Ukraine.
But according to Professor Pavlyshyn, the Russian president could have several objectives in mind.
"The first [objective] is to weaken, destabilise or perhaps even destroy Ukraine as a functioning democratic state," he said.
Mr Putin has long expressed the rhetoric that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, and placing a wedge between Ukraine and western countries (including any prospect of joining NATO) would also prove beneficial for Russia.
"[Mr Putin] would like to leave a legacy where he is recognised as the great restorer of the Russian empire," Professor Pavlyshyn said.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Source: TASS
He explained that if Mr Putin has a vision of restoring Russia's former empire, he also carries an "adversarial vision of the world where anyone who objects to this kind of idea is your enemy".
"[This is] of course Ukrainians who are dedicated to the independence of their country, but also the west which is concerned that the global international order is under threat."
Meanwhile, Ukraine could drop its bid to join NATO to avoid war with Russia, the BBC quoted the country's ambassador to Britain as saying, in what would amount to a major concession to Moscow in response to the build-up of Russian troops on its borders.
Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko told the BBC Ukraine was willing to be "flexible" over its goal to join the Atlantic military alliance, a move Mr Putin has said would be a trigger for war.
"We might - especially being threatened like that, blackmailed by that, and pushed to it," Mr Prystaiko was quoted as saying when asked if Kyiv could change its position on NATO membership.
Ukraine is not a NATO member but has a promise dating from 2008 that it will eventually be given the opportunity to join, a step that would bring the US-led alliance to Russia's border.
Mr Putin says Ukraine's growing ties with the alliance could make it a launch pad for NATO missiles targeted at Russia. He said Russia needs to lay down "red lines."
How will this impact Australia?
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reiterated Australia's support for Ukraine in parliament on Monday, calling on the Russian government to put an end to the "threatening" and "bullying" of Ukraine.
"We denounce Russia's bullying, coercion, intimidation and threats of violence against Ukraine, and we will always take steps to do that," he said.
"We look on these issues and these events with great concern, we support Ukraine's sovereignty, we support their right to territorial borders, and that they not be imperilled."
In a Senate estimates hearing it has been confirmed that 147 Australians remain in Ukraine, as urgent travel advice has called on them to leave the country immediately.
Meanwhile, Australia's embassy staff in Kyiv have been directed to a temporary office in Lviv, a city in western Ukraine, around 70 kilometres from the border with Poland.
Should an invasion take place, Trade, Tourism and Investment Minister Dan Tehan said strict economic pressures will be placed on Russia, following the lead of the US and the United Kingdom.
"It is highly likely there would be very strong sanctions against Russia and we'll have to play our part in that regard," he told Sky News.
"We want a de-escalation, but if [invasion] happens, then you'll be looking at sanctions and we'll be a part of that."
Can Australia take any lessons from this situation?
While the tensions between Russia and Ukraine may seem distant to Australian foreign affairs, Professor Pavlyshyn warned otherwise.
He said Russia’s next moves in Ukraine will be closely watched by China, a nation that is facing “analogous” circumstances with Taiwan.
“Russia’s attitude towards its neighbours in Europe is very similar to China's attitude towards its neighbours in our own region in the Indo-Pacific.”
Australia doesn't formally recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state but .
Late last year, Defence Minister Peter Dutton said it would be 'inconceivable' for Australia not to support any US military action to defend Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng has previously warned Beijing would be in a position to launch a full-scale invasion against Taipei by 2025.
Professor Pavlyshyn said these parallels between Russia and China prove that this growing conflict can be a lesson for Australia to defend democratic countries under threat.
Taiwan's Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng. Source: SOPA Images/LightRocket/Walid Berrazeg
“Australia must be involved with like-minded countries … to resist the upturning of the international political order that has existed since the Second World War.
“No country may just … invade another country with impunity or seek to control another country with impunity or to limit the sovereignty of another country with impunity.”
With Reuters.
Correction: A previous map in this story contained an incorrect location for Slovakia. This has been corrected.
