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Coach familiarity
The Socceroos will not be entering their fifth-consecutive World Cup appearance with an untimely managerial change like last time out.
Australia’s preparations for the 2018 finals were dealt a huge blow by the shock resignation of Ange Postecoglou just seven months out from the tournament and two weeks after his qualifying success in the play-off against Honduras.
His departure for personal reasons led to the interim appointment of Bert van Marwijk, with the abrupt change leading to a shift in formation and coinciding with the gaping attacking hole left by the largely bench bound, albeit close-to-retirement Tim Cahill at the tournament.
The result was a Socceroos outfit which looked incredibly short of attacking flair and goal power throughout the group stage, with inexperienced international Andrew Nabbout thrust into a centre-forward role in Cahill’s absence. The side also featured the likes of bolter Daniel Arzani as well as injury-prone forwards Tomi Juric and Robbie Kruse, all of whom have been out of international action since 2019.
However, the Socceroos now have the longevity of Graham Arnold’s four-year tenure as head coach behind them, and without such a major disruption leading up to Qatar 2022, the foundation of the squad from recent qualifiers will likely remain intact. Although there will be tight competition for starting positions, there will be less unrest with the starting XI which Arnold ultimately lays down.
Squad will be better than Russia 2018
Not only will the Socceroos bring a 26-man squad to Qatar which should have few changes to the sides selected for the play-off against Peru and the recent friendlies against New Zealand, but the squad for the November tournament should look a lot more balanced and generally well-rounded than its 2018 counterpart based off Arnold’s recent selections.
The fine form of J.League strikers Mitchell Duke and Adam Taggart as well as A-League stars Jamie Maclaren, Jason Cummings and Bruno Fornaroli have been welcome additions to the side since the 2018 tournament, while Arnold looks set on the midfield trio of Aaron Mooy, Ajdin Hrustic and Jackson Irvine amid their starts against both Peru and New Zealand.
Arnold will not have to line-up retired Mark Milligan as a makeshift centre-back like in Russia, and is likely to choose either Milos Degenek or Bailey Wright to pair up with 2018 starter Trent Sainsbury in Qatar. Kye Rowles, Thomas Deng and Stoke City’s Harry Souttar are also an outside chance for the position, with such hopes for the latter resting on his recovery from an ACL tear he suffered in a tournament qualifier last November.
Arnold will face a stray of selection headaches in all positions, with doubt arising over captain Mat Ryan’s fitness levels for Qatar after he was dropped in favour of Polish goalkeeper Kamil Grabara at club level. The FC Copenhagen man not only launched a scathing attack on the Australian shot-stopper in a recent interview, but the Pole’s selection over Ryan was recently affirmed after his performance in the UEFA Champions League last week drew praise from Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola.
While Ryan’s selection in 2018 was more clear-cut, he now faces competition from the likes of play-off hero Andrew Redmayne and Mitch Langerak, after the latter recently came out of international retirement. Arnold will also have a tough time deciding between Nathaniel Atkinson, Fran Karacic and Ryan Strain at right-back and a host of players on the left-hand side of defence, including Aziz Behich, Jason Davidson and Joel King.
While the experienced 2018 midfield provided little surprises upon its selection, consisting of Mooy, Kruse, Mathew Leckie, current absentee Tom Rogic and the retired Mile Jedinak, Arnold this year will have Leckie, bolter Garang Kuol, Awer Mabil, Martin Boyle, Riley McGree, Connor Metcalfe, Marco Tilio and Nicholas D’Agostino among others to choose from in such positions.
While the headache of choosing the right starting XI will loom large on Arnold come their World Cup opener against France, there is no doubt that he will prefer the more plentiful attacking options and subsequent headaches over the more cut-and-dry selections of van Marwijk in 2018.
Opponents’ lead-up troubles
The jaw-dropping injury list of the French national team is just one of their countless off-field concerns heading into the 2022 tournament.
Goalkeepers Mike Maignan and Hugo Lloris, defenders Lucas Digne, Theo Hernandez, Lucas Hernandez, Presnel Kimpembe and Ibrahima Konaté, attacking duo Karim Benzema and Kingsley Coman and midfielders Boubacar Kamara, Adrien Rabiot and Paul Pogba all missed out on their recent internationals against Austria and Denmark.
Meanwhile, their poor recent form, winning only one of six matches from their UEFA Nations League campaign, Kylian Mbappe’s feud with the French Football Federation (FFF) over image rights, allegations of inappropriate workplace behaviour from the president of the governing body and an ongoing investigation into an alleged extortion attempt on Paul Pogba have compounded their injury woes even further.
While the Socceroos’ less familiar opponents Tunisia have not seen the extent of France’s off-field dramas in their own camp, some worrying signs of inconsistency have shone through in recent matches.
Two convincing wins over Chile and Japan in the Kirin Cup Soccer tournament back in June were the kind of results which would have appeared ominous in the eyes of Australian fans. But a crushing 5-1 defeat to Brazil in their most recent match and their quarter-final exit at the hands of 54th-ranked Burkina Faso in the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) at the start of the year have proven that the Tunisians can also be highly beatable.
Ahmed Adala, a Tunisian journalist with Radio Mosaique FM, commented on the nation’s secret hopes of facing Socceroos’ South American play-off opponents Peru in an article published in November last year.
“We have a preference for teams from North and South America,” Adala told Argentinian publication Infobae.
“Our first victory in a World Cup was in 1978, against Mexico. In 1998 we were able to beat Colombia but lost (1-0). In 2018, we beat Panama (2-1).
“Therefore, we hope to face Peru, not Australia for example, [despite] the fact that we won against them in the Confederation Cup (2005), 2-0.”
Not only did the Socceroos’ play-off victory bring Tunisia an unfavoured opponent, but with it, the unpredictably of a side they have not faced in 17 years.
The stubbornness of Graham Arnold’s tactical set-up may frustrate the similarly structured Tunisian side even further, particularly if the unpredictable attacking exploits of Mabil or bolters Cummings and Kuol are used effectively.
Unlike Australia, Tunisia have additionally undergone a recent managerial change, following the dismissal of coach Mondher Kebaier from their premature exit from the AFCON. Despite finding some form under replacement Jalel Kadri, Kabaier’s assistant at the tournament, many would be led to question the recently adopted mentality of ‘wins built on defence’, having come undone so spectacularly in their last match and in their additional AFCON defeats to Mali and Gambia, ranked 46th and 126th in the world respectively.
Such concerns over Tunisia’s form and possible unrest from their managerial change, as well as France’s current crisis and the Socceroos’ familiarity with their two European opponents, could put the Australians well within reach of surprising their higher-ranked opponents in the group stage.
That ‘Aussie DNA’ again
The criticism of Graham Arnold’s claim about the ‘Aussie DNA’ after their play-off victory against United Arab Emirates in June, to ‘fight, scratch and do whatever you have got to do to win the game’, came thick and fast from fan circles and from sections of the media.
However, the sceptics were proven sorely wrong with the Socceroos’ incredible play-off victory against Peru a week later.
What the Socceroos lacked in technical efficiency and attack on the night, they more than made up for in energy and defensive effort over a sluggish-looking Peru outift, as they impressively outplayed an opponent ranked 20 places above them in the world.
Not only has Arnold stood by his team’s fighting mentality in recent interviews, but he has also doubled down on them, indicating that he shares a similar vision to the one which took the Socceroos to the World Cup in 2006 when he served as assistant coach.
“It’s not written in stone that France will beat Australia in the World Cup. It’s still 0-0, we still have a great opportunity,” Arnold said on YouTube series Straight Talk.
“We might not be technically as good as those other nations. We might not be tactically as good as those other nations. But physically, we can be better and mentally (as well). It’s all mindset.”
While some fans dare to dream and others completely refuse to believe in the Socceroos’ chances of progressing beyond the group stage, the belief that Arnold has instilled in his squad of players is undeniable and should be more than enough reason to give others hope of the ‘Aussie DNA’ carrying them through a difficult, albeit not impossible three matches in Qatar.
It is through such physicality, optimism and energy that the Socceroos can topple a depleted French team in their opening match and carry that momentum on to Tunisia and Denmark in the following days.
