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Messi has been tipped to add to his iconic collection on October 31, when the world’s best descend on the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris, though it appears his FIFA World Cup triumph might not be enough.
Indeed, the 36-year-old etched his name atop the game’s all-time greats after guiding Argentina to World Cup success in Qatar, having also earned the Golden Ball as the tournament’s best player.
But while his record-breaking performances certainly merit football’s prestigious prize, any failure to win will be a direct result of the shift in values prevalent among voting committees over the last 17 years.
Such values, whereby club football supersedes its international counterpart, is precisely why Haaland finds himself firmly in the running for the award he looked at times destined to win during the 2022-23 campaign.
Not since 2006, when Fabio Cannavaro shone for Italy, has the Ballon d’Or been awarded in recognition of the World Cup. In 2010, it was Messi who denied Spain’s Andres Iniesta and Xavi; in 2014, it was Cristiano Ronaldo who fought off Germany’s Manuel Neuer; and in 2018, it was Luka Modric who overcame France’s Antoine Griezmann.
If recent history repeats itself in Paris, Haaland, fresh from a treble-winning debut season with Manchester City, will hold the advantage over Messi, with Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Kevin De Bruyne likely to follow.
Silverware isn’t supposed to sway the minds of the voting committee - composed of 100 journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked nations - but the 23-year-old certainly had the individual displays to match, producing 52 goals and nine assists in 53 games.
City were able to lift the Premier League, FA Cup and UEFA Champions League as a result, with their dominant number nine adding a further four goals in four appearances for Norway.
Messi, meanwhile, managed 41 goals and 26 assists in 56 games for club and country, but could only boast the Ligue 1 title alongside his World Cup heroics – his Leagues Cup success with Inter Miami coming after the July 31 cut-off date.
Despite the 36-year-old’s impressive return, his spell with Paris Saint-Germain soured as the season came to a close, with several sections of the Parisian support blaming both he and Neymar for their continental failures in particular.
It is here where Haaland shone and precisely why previous World Cup-winning nominees have been overlooked ever since Messi picked up the individual honour despite failing to register a goal 13 years ago in South Africa.
It wasn’t always this way, with the World Cup still considered by many to be the holy grail of the beautiful game, and yet, it’s the landscape we find ourselves in, whereby Real Madrid’s Champions League victories in 2014 and 2018 each enabled Ronaldo and Modric to prosper.
In the case of the Croatian, his exploits at the World Cup in Russia, where he led the Vatreni to the final as the tournament’s best player, certainly helped his case for the Ballon d’Or, though questions surround by just how much as Ronaldo also finished above Griezmann in the ballot.
Even then, eyebrows weren’t raised over the Frenchman’s evaluation by the voting committee, but rather that of Ronaldo as players and pundits felt he was more deserving due to his role in Madrid’s endeavours.
Such dissension comes with such subjectivity and that appears to be the reason why Messi never paid too much attention to the politics involved with France Football’s coveted award.
“The Ballon d’Or is very important due to the recognition at an individual level, but I never gave it importance,” Messi said at the start of the 2023-24 season.
“The most important thing for me was always the awards at the group level. I was lucky to have achieved everything in my career and after the World Cup, I’m thinking about that award much less, my biggest award was that [the World Cup].
“If it [the Ballon d’Or] arrives, good, and if not, nothing happens. I was lucky to achieve all my goals in my career and now I have new goals with this club.”
As for Haaland, however, he admitted “I have a chance this year”, with former Chelsea and Scotland midfielder-turned-pundit Craig Burley even urging the striker to boycott future ceremonies if he fails to win.
“If Erling Haaland doesn’t win this, close the shop,” Burley told ESPN. “Lionel Messi won the World Cup and it’s a great achievement, but it’s a four-week period. His general league form was not the best. PSG were terrible.”
“This award, like a few awards, drives me nuts because he’s the one that deserves it,” he added. “But I think out there it will be full of sentimental claptrap – Messi won the World Cup, Messi’s this and Messi’s that, and they will just hand him another one.
“If I was Erling Haaland, I would never go back to another Ballon d’Or in my life, same as Robert Lewandowski.”
