The Maldives is a quintessential tropical paradise.
More than 1,000 coral islands make up the idyllic archipelago, which is more known more for its vulnerability to climate change than its political instability.
But the country’s political system has been highly volatile in recent years, to the point where opposition parties and exiled leaders are now quite openly discussing the overthrow the elected president, Abdulla Yameen.
To understand the current crisis, it’s worth going back to 2008 when Mohamed Nasheed became the country’s first democratically elected president.
Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen walks past armed guards during a swearing in ceremony in Male on November 17, 2013 (STRDEL / AFP / Getty Images). Source: AFP
Nasheed had been a thorn in the government’s side for years. A democracy activist fighting against an entrenched 30-year-old dictatorship, the agitator had previously been imprisoned by the regime he eventually ousted.
“In politics in this country,” he once told The Economist, “you're either in government or in jail.”
As president, Nasheed gained international notoriety for relentlessly campaigning on the threat of climate change. Sea level-rises and catastrophic weather events continue to pose a stark threat for the low-lying atoll nation.
The Maldives would prefer to be known for its tourism industry than its political instability. Tourism is the main driver of economic growth. Source: AAP/Mary Evans/Ardea/Kurt Amsler
Domestically he made tentative steps towards increasing press freedom and deregulating state-media. But his election also coincided with the global financial crisis, frustrating attempts turn around the country’s ailing economy.
Economic development had been a key plank of Nasheed’s election campaign, but the financial crisis hit the tourism industry hard, pushing the country into recession and deepening its deficit.
In response, president accepted a deal with the International Monetary Fund plan which included unpopular measures such as cutting wages, increasing electricity prices, reducing subsidies and raising interest rates.
A divided parliament pushed back on economic reforms and privatisation attempts, while Nasheed struggled to keep his coalition cabinet together - at one point they even resigned en mass.
By 2011 Nasheed had become unpopular at home, with economic management and his moderate brand of Islam becoming key targets for critics.
Nasheed, center, became the Maldives' first elected president, winning the vote just as the global financial crisis hit in 2008. Source: (AP Photo/Sinan Hussain)
Some protestors railed against a 3.5% GST and plans to float the nation’s currency, while others targeted 'un-Islamic' policies such as allowing the sale of alcohol and direct flights from Israel.
"To build our economy we need foreign investments and we need to create an environment in which foreigners can invest," Nasheed said in response to 3,000 Islamist protestors.
"Should we ban music? Should we mutilate girls' genitals? Should we allow 9 year-olds to be married? Should we forbid art and drawing? Should we be allowed to take concubines? Is this nation building?" he said.
The economic situation combined with religious grievances proved too much for the country’s political system to withstand. In February 2012, police and military forces had sided with protestors and opposition parties, forcing the president to step down.
The Vice President, from an another party, took over the presidency. Nasheed claims he was pushed to resign at gunpoint.
A Maldivian army soldier and policeman take cover as a Nasheed supporter hurls back a tear gas canister thrown during a protest in Male, Maldives, on Feb 8 2012 Source: (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena )
“I was forced to resign with guns all around me, they told me that if I do not resign they did not hesitate to use arms,” he said.
It's a claim his successor refuted, and which a subsequent government inquiry disputes - though political independence has always been a rare commodity in the troubled archipelago.
Fresh elections were held in 2013, but Nasheed won only 45%, not enough to avoid a run-off election.
Before those elections could be held, however, the Supreme Court controversially nullified the results and called for fresh elections. After that ballot, and a subsequent runoff election, Abdulla Yameen claimed victory.
While Commonwealth electoral observers said they had some concerns over electoral best-practice in the re-run elections, they said the results were still credible.
President Yameen is the half-brother of the dictator Nasheed ousted in 2008, President Gayoom.
Since Yameen’s elevation, the political situation hasn’t really stabilised.
Presidential elections were re-run on November 9, with a subsequent runoff election on November 16. Observers said they were credible, despite some concerns. Source: AFP
In 2014 the country’s Supreme Court handed suspended jail sentences to the election commissioners who managed the first-round of elections the previous year, a move seen by some as a shot across the bow.
The government has also moved to re-institute the death penalty, which would end a moratorium lasting more than 60 years. Clamp-downs on opposition demonstrators, human rights monitors and LGBT+ citizens have also worried international rights groups.
In 2015 Nasheed was arrested and imprisoned for allegedly ordering the arrest of a judge in 2012. The move sparked mass protests from his supporters after a dramatic and widely criticised trial in which several of the judges reportedly also served as witnesses.
Human Rights Lawyer Amal Clooney described it as , while Amnesty International called it a deeply flawed travesty of justice.
“Democracy is dead in the Maldives,” said Hamid Ghafoor, spokesman for Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party upon his conviction, “in its place, we have thuggish authoritarian rule.”
Former president Mohamed Nasheed falls to the ground during a scuffle as he arrives at a courthouse on February 23, 2015. Source: ADAM SIREII/AFP/Getty Images
Supporters say Nasheed’s imprisonment is part of a pattern on the part of President Yameen, who they claim is trying to eliminate opposition ahead of the country’s next elections.
In October 2015 Vice President Ahmed Adeeb was arrested, with the government claiming he was behind an explosion on a speedboat carrying President Yameen. The blast injured the president’s wife and two other officials but left the leader unharmed.
The government claims it was an assassination attempt aimed at the president, but the FBI – which the government asked to investigate – said they could find no evidence that the blast resulted from an explosive device.
The Vice President was sentenced to 15 years prison in June. A former Defence minister and an Islamist opposition leader are also serving time in detention.
“Almost all opposition leaders are either in jail or in exile, fearing arrest and imprisonment if they return,” Amnesty International says.
In January this year, Nasheed was released from prison on ‘humanitarian grounds’, according to the government.
Ahmed Adeeb was jailed for 15 years accused of plotting to assassinate the president by allegedly planting a bomb on the presidential speedboat. Source: (NISHAN ALI, ISHARA KODIKARA/AFP/Getty Images)
However, observers note that it might have had more to do with the efforts of the former president’s star legal team, which included Amal Clooney and Geoffrey Robertson.
Fighting against Maldivian government lawyers led by Cherie Blair, Nasheed’s team won support for the imprisoned politician in United Nations and had begun lobbying Western governments for the imposition targeted sanctions.
Met at the airport by Amal Clooney, the former president has since been granted asylum by the UK.
Through it all, the UK-educated former president has remained a media-darling in the West.
Mohamed Nasheed was greeted by British lawyer Amal Clooney at Heathrow airport in London on Janurary 21, 2016. Source: NIKLAS HALLE'N/AFP/Getty Images
He’s written op-eds for the New York Times, been labelled a “new best friend” by David Cameron and was profiled in the well-received feature documentary, The Island President.
The Maldivian government says the well-practiced media performer is talking down his home country by exaggerating threats of Islamic extremism and portraying a country on the verge of collapse.
They accuse him of seeking to undermine a democratically elected leader and openly calling for a coup.
"In the Maldives, a young and fledgling democracy, the fragile political equilibrium gained after decades of one party rule must be nurtured, not undermined," wrote Abdulla Rifau, a member of President Yameen's government.
"With three internationally recognised multi-party elections under its belt, years of hard work risks being undone by a cavalier and reckless group of politicians, many based abroad, who see short term gain as far more favourable than the political stability of their own nation," he wrote.
Western countries are particularly concerned about the apparent rise in Islamic radicalism in the Maldives, along with growing ties to China, which is continuing to support the country with foreign aid, investment and increasing tourist flows.
Their increasing influence is a concern for India, which has had historically strong ties with the country.
The islands lie in a key strategic position for the China, as nearby India shapes up as a regional rival.
In recent days the Maldivian government has been deporting journalists as business groups call for a ban on foreign press, who they say are harming the country’s vital tourism industry.
Former Prime Minister David Cameron hosts Mohamed Nasheed and Amal Clooney at 10 Downing Street in London, Britain, 23 January 2016. Source: EPA / ANDY RAIN / POOL
BBC correspondent, Justin Rowlatt, snuck into the country on a tourist visa to investigate whether a heightened talk of a potential coup might have some substance.
Last week, he filed his report.
“What became increasingly clear was that president Yameen is indeed vulnerable. His half-brother, former president Gayoom, has recently withdrawn his support,” . “Yameen is now struggling to rally even his own MPs.”
When the BBC journalist emailed the President’s office to seek confirmation, he says he got a direct reply.
The administration was aware of an attempt to “overthrow the government,” they wrote, “in clear breach of international legal norms.”
It wasn't a claim the opposition put much effort into denying.
The West has concerns about radical Islamism in the Maldives and growing ties with China. Chinese President Xi Jinping made a historic visit in September 2014. Source: AFP
On Friday, former president Nasheed joined opposition groups to strategise the overthrow of the President Yameen. They met in Colombo, Sri Lanka, just an hour and a half's flight from the Maldivian capital of Malé.
“The opposition leaders are meeting in Colombo to work out strategies to legally topple Yameen,” a member of the Maldivian Democratic Party .
The government has been responding seriously to the threat.
“We are keeping a close watch on the political landscape. The military and government offices are connected. The army will not allow a transfer of power,” Defence Minister Adam Shareef Umar told a meeting televised on public television.
“The rhetoric on social media and the national airwaves has been ultra-nationalistic; the opposition is being slammed as traitors, and Maldivians are being urged to ‘close ranks against colonial powers,’”
Government supporters have said the opposition is involved in an effort to destroy the Islamic faith, the paper says.
The government has also announced new plans to clamp down on foreign press, according to the BBC, as opposition parties continue to stratagise.
“It looks like I won't be welcome back until there's a change of government,” the BBC's man in South Asia lamented.
And that may be a long-time coming, if the government’s supporters are to be believed.
“Even if a gun is held to President Yameen’s head and he is ordered to sign a resignation letter, he will not sign it, even if he falls dead,” Majority Leader Ahmed Nihan said on Friday, according to the Maldives Independent.
With rhetoric as heated as ever, it appears there’s no sign of political stability arriving anytime soon to the troubled archipelago.
That's bad news for the country’s 400,000-strong population, whose economic prosperity continues to rely on international tourism.
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