TRANSCRIPT
Janice Petersen 0:00
Thanks again, Eric for joining us. Mr. Trump's Republican base seems to be largely unmoved by his trials. But a recent poll suggests that 60% of others think he should quit the race. Does that mean a Trump Biden election is almost inevitable?
Eric Ham 0:16
Well, we know that Donald Trump's base is perhaps one of the most hardened basis within the Republican Party. And because not only he's leading the polls by so much, but what the polls continue to show is that many of his competitors simply just don't have a lane to run in. And while Donald Trump's base has always been perhaps, the loudest, we know that trumps base typically caps out at about 35%. So it's not a very large base. But it's enough to be competitive. And as we see, it's enough to be seen as the dominant figure in the Republican Party. And that's all he needs, perhaps to get through the primaries next year.
Janice Petersen 1:02
So what impact do you think Trump's time in court might have on his campaign, given that he's very much in the spotlight and still continuing to get publicity?
Eric Ham 1:13
You know, we keep talking about how this is unchartered territory for the United States. There's never been a time when we've seen an ex president, indicted, let alone indicted four times. And now we're going to see Donald Trump for the first time in an actual courtroom work where he will have to actually face these charges. And up until this point, it has actually been rocket fuel for for Donald Trump politically, we've seen how he's been able to raise record amounts of money and how it has extended his lead over the rest of the field. But when Donald Trump actually has to literally go from courtroom to courtroom, and is unable to actually be on the campaign trail, that is where we could begin to see some peel off, not only from perhaps Republicans, but more importantly, from some of those Republican leaning independents. And again, it might not have much impact in the primaries. But in a general election matchup, where of course we know, two to three points can be all the difference between defeat and victory. That could be just enough to swing this election in the favor of the incumbent Joe Biden.
Janice Petersen 2:25
Will talk to me more about that, because you're describing this as rocket fuel politically for Trump. What does it mean for Biden, who is not making these headlines and is also struggling in the polls?
Eric Ham 2:39
Yeah, overwhelmingly, most Americans have made clear they do not want to see a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. And we know Joe Biden has struggled mightily in the polls. And because of his age, that's going to be a massive, massive hurdle that he is going to have to try to overcome when he begins to campaign in earnest next year. And of course, his age is also going to be an issue for him, particularly when he has to be out on the campaign trail on a daily basis. If we go back to 2020. That was the height of the pandemic. And I guess one of the advantages that Biden had during that time was his ability to basically campaign from his basement, he won't have that luxury this time around, he's going to have to get out and meet with voters. And he's going to have to both campaign as well as run the country. That is when we could see just how much of an impact Joe Biden's age is going to have perhaps on a second term. And it could give voters pause, hey, heading into the election.
Janice Petersen 3:42
Let's talk about some of the other people in this race, because we know that the Republicans have alternate candidates, but now wells might be a viable candidate waiting in the wings of the Democrats.
Eric Ham 3:55
Well, typically, you don't see challengers that are seen as viable candidates. The last time there was perhaps a viable challenger for an incumbent was when Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter back in 1980. And of course, that didn't work out so well for Jimmy Carter, when he ran against Ronald Reagan. This time around, we do know that there are some candidates that are running seen as fringe candidates. It's um, it's unlikely that any of these candidates are going to be a threat to the nomination for Joe Biden, and also to the contingency plan is always in has always been the vice president. And while certainly Kamala Harris has her detractors. Least what we're seeing right now is she seems to be finding at least her comfort space with being the Vice President, and as well as becoming more and more like the the attack person for this campaign. And I think that's a role that she's going to relish as we move into 2024 as well.
Janice Petersen 4:56
Eric Kim, thanks so much for your time.
Eric Ham 4:58
You bet. Thanks. It was good to be with you.
This timecoded transcript was created using machine learning technology.
