Wagner group leader killed in plane crash - or was he?

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group at an unknown location in May 2023.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group at an unknown location in May 2023. Source: AAP / AP

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, has reportedly died in a plane crash near Moscow, alongside Wagner commander, Dmitry Utkin. Following Mr Prigozhin's recent rebellion against Russia, there's speculation about the crash's true cause, with some suggesting it might be an assassination or even a staged death.


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TRANSCRIPT

Head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a brief armed rebellion against the Russian military earlier this year, has reportedly died in a plane crash north of Moscow, according to the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency.

Russia's emergency situations ministry said in a statement that the aircraft, which had been travelling from Moscow to St. Petersburg, had crashed near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver Region.

It said that 10 people had been on board, including three crew members.

Russian state television makes the announcement.

"So, the latest news. We are coming back to the topic of air crashes in the Tver region. The Federal Air Transport Agency published the names of all the passengers on the plane that crashed in the Tver region. The names of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin are on the list."

Dmitry Utkin was the Wagner group commander under Mr Prigozhin.

US President Joe Biden was briefed on the crash.

BIDEN: ''I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised."

JOURNALIST: "Do you believe (Russian President Vladimir) Putin is behind this, sir?"

BIDEN: "There's not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind but I don't know enough to know the answer."

In June 2023, after his mercenaries were reportedly attacked by Russian forces in Ukraine, Mr. Prigozhin rebelled against Russia, accusing its government of treason and demanding the resignation of top Russian military commanders.

“These are the Wagner PMC guys who died today. The blood is fresh. Film all of them. These are someone's fathers and someone's sons."

On the 23rd of June his forces took over and occupied Rostov-on-Don and the Southern Military District headquarters.

“We are at the headquarters of the Southern Military District. It’s 7:30am. Military objects of Rostov are under control, including the airfield.”

Mr Prigozhin ended the rebellion one day later and announced a deal to relocate to Belarus with the assurance that participating Wagner troops wouldn't face charges.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the time labelled Mr Prigozhin's actions treasonous and the Wagner Group, a national threat.

Experts at the time predicted that Mr Prigozhin would meet an untimely demise.

Even President Biden said so.

“If I were he I'd be careful what I ate, and keep my eye on my menu, but who knows. I don't know I don't think any of us know for sure what the future of Prigozhin is in Russia."

Hours before the plane crash the head of Russia's air force, General Sergei Surovikin, was dismissed from his post.

Mr Surovikin was linked to Mr Prigozhin's rebellion and mutiny and has not been seen since.

Professor Kathryn Stoner is the director of the Centre on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.

She suspects Mr Prigozhin was assassinated on the orders of the Russian President.

“Yes, would Putin have done this? Well, he has a -  certainly the Russian security forces have a history of poisoning people at home and abroad and political opponents or people that Mr. Putin has previously called traitors. And he has of course, called Prigozhin. Well, he's called some of them traitors. But, you know, why did it take so long?  Your original question. Yeah, this is interesting, In a way, it took a long time. In a way, it was quick."

Ms Stoner believes several factors had to be taken into consideration before Mr Prigozhin could be eliminated.

“It's is likely that Prigozhin had some sympathisers in the Russian military as did Sorovikin. And so making sure that those people have been demoted or removed .... And also making sure they know where the bulk of Wagner forces are. Wagner was asked after that rebellion to turn in its equipment. So, presumably, that's now been done. The bulk of Wagner forces have arrived in Belarus. And so I think it just took a little bit of time to get all of those ducks in a row. And so in that sense, this timing, you know, is probably the earliest such a thing could have could have happened without causing further trouble or rebellions within the Russian military."

Keir Giles is the Russia Expert and Senior Consulting Fellow at Chatham House.

He is also the author of 'Russia's War on Everybody'.

"First of all, it will not come as a surprise if Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of Wagner, has now finally been dealt with by the Russian state. It was more of a surprise that he was allowed to survive for so long after mounting this challenge to Moscow by taking his men and marching on the Kremlin, looking for a reckoning with the Ministry of Defence. However, he will have known since then that there was a target on his back and President Putin needed to set an example. You cannot have Yevgeny Prigozhin setting a dangerous precedent by mounting a mutiny and actually surviving it. This will have given other people ideas. Now, those other people who have been watching what has happened, seeing this very theatrical, spectacular way of dealing with Prigozhin will have drawn the appropriate conclusions and they will have just adjusted their own risk calculus to suit."

But not everyone is convinced Mr Prigozhin is dead.

That includes Mr Giles.

"It really depends whether this is actually the Wagner boss or somebody traveling under the name of Yevgeny Prigozhin, because we know that Prigozhin used aliases or rather people who assumed his name in order to travel as part of his security measures, in order to obfuscate his travel plans and to conceal where he actually was. And of course, this is somebody who took his personal security very seriously, even before he made himself a marked man by marching on Moscow this year. So let's not be completely surprised until it's absolutely 100% confirmed if  Yevgeny Prigozhin, the real Wagner boss, doesn't actually pop up somewhere else."

Thirty-two year-old Ukrainian soldier Hennadi, also has his doubts.

"I believe Prigozhin staged his death in order to flee, so that no one knows where he's hiding."

The last known video of Mr Prigozhin was posted on Telegram channels affiliated with the Wagner group on Monday [[August 21]].

It was his first video address since his short-lived mutiny and appeared that it was possibly shot in Africa.

Mr Prigozhin is seen standing in a desert area in camouflage and carrying a rifle in his hands.

 



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