TRANSCRIPT
Tahlib Barnes was heading to the Harmony Café in the Michigan city of Detroit when the results came in for the 2024 US election.
"I heard it out as I was opening the door, and just came on in and grinded up the coffee and made the coffee and I thought, ‘okay, the people (have) spoken.’"
What the people have said is Donald Trump can become president again - despite persistently low approval ratings, four criminal indictments, a civil judgement for sexual abuse and defamation, and a criminal conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush money paid to a porn star in 2016.
"We're in a strange place with such a polarising candidate, right? People either really love him or really hate him."
The potential reasons for Donald Trump's re-election have become the talk of the town.
For many commentators, his victory is the result of a disaffected electorate that was so put off by America’s trajectory that they welcomed or minimised his brash and disruptive approach.
Professor Rodrigo Praino, from Flinders University, says an incumbent government tends to lose power when voters are worried about the economy, even if all the indicators are actually good.
He says those economic concerns tend to disproportionately affect minority communities.
Dr Dennis Altman, from La Trobe University in Melbourne, says there was definite movement in the polls from those communities as a result.
"What Trump did in this election was to win over a much larger number of Latino and Black voters than I think any Republican has this century."
But Professor Praino says it's not simply a story about the economy.
"There is of course the gender issue. Trump has pitted one gender against another - men against women - in a way that has never been done before, in my opinion. There is also the issue that many comment that it seems that Americans are simply not happy to elect and vote for a woman. Which is atrocious, but that's what the numbers say."
Monash University's Dr Denise Goodman says other deeply held cultural values also played a role in returning Mr Trump to the White House.
She says racial anxieties and biases were highlighted and strengthened by social media, blunting the concern people might have held about what he says and the way he says it.
"Social identity bias is what we would call that one... It's where we tend to believe things or people that fits with our in group... It certainly played out in this election. He plays very well on those types of things, which means people are more likely to lean into that kind of bias, whether they know it or not."
Political analyst and pollster Michael O'Neil says in that context, Donald Trump's message on migrants was ultimately persuasive.
"Immigration was a big issue, and the problem the Democrats had is that for years they are in power and are perceived as not doing anything. And one thing that people want when they perceive a problem, they want somebody doing something. Even if it might not be the right thing, they certainly want action."
For Emory University distinguished professor Bernard Fraga, all of these factors were reflected in a higher turnout where it counted, especially in the battleground states.
"I think if you look at Georgia there's a really interesting story here. We have excellent data about who voted, especially before the election - there's about 80 per cent of Georgia voters - and what we found is that turnout was actually up a little bit from 2020. So this wasn't a story necessarily of Democrats staying home, it was really that Trump was able to mobilise even more Republican voters than he did in 2020."
So what happens now?
Ultimately, Dr Altman says it's impossible - and too early - to say.
"It's very hard to know because Trump is unpredictable. If he does some of the things that he says he's going to do, it will mean essentially a reversal of a number of the more social welfare-type policies of Joe Biden. And it will mean an increase in political revenge. I can't think of a better word, because Trump himself has made clear that he wants to punish his enemies. Quite how that will play out I don't know."
Professor Praino believes one of Donald Trump's first major actions will be to protect himself from the numerous court cases that are currently being run against him.
"It will end up being dropped or being closed in any way they can. No-one is going to try to prosecute a president-elect or even worse a sitting president, in my opinion, at this stage."
Some voters are already predicting that their community will be targeted in any new immigration policy, because of the emphasis he placed on the issue during the campaign.
Jacob Payen, from the Haiti Community Alliance in Ohio, says group members have already faced harassment.
"There's a preconceived notion out there that there may be a massive deportation and we don't want that - if that's even true. Because my community has come a long way to come here to Springfield."
There are also questions about what another Trump presidency will mean on the international stage.
Donald Trump has railed for years against NATO members who have failed to meet agreed military spending targets, and warned during the campaign he would not only refuse to defend any nations "delinquent" on funding but would encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to them.
Analyst Kevin Kellems served in the Bush administration and Department of Defence.
"It is possible, depending on what happens in the negotiations with Vladimir Putin, that war becomes more likely. If the United States forfeits land and people in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will be looking at Russia, Finland, Central and Western Europe wherever he can find a soft spot. This makes it much more likely that the opportunity, and the fate of the United States, having to fight in Western Europe... In other words, the outcome of this election could decide the likelihood of whether the United States ends up in a land war in Europe."
Dr Altman says he is expecting US support for Ukraine to significantly decline - and that is just for starters.
"We know that Trump has a good and close relationship with Vladimir Putin. I think it will also mean an even more open cheque for Netanyahu in Israel... It will mean that the United States will withdraw from the Paris Accords - Trump has made that perfectly clear. The US will no longer be pushing for measures to reduce global climate change."
Leslie Vinjamuri is the director of the US and Americas program at Chatham House. She says Europeans are worried about what a new Trump administration could mean, in view of his campaign promises on import and export tariffs.
"This is at a time of low competitiveness across European economies when they don't want to be on the receiving end of a very tough and singular American line that pushes tariffs, that pushes them to cooperate on very strict agenda when it comes to China."
Overall, Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia Centre for Politics says, there is cause for future concern now the country has shifted further to the right and the Republicans potentially control the House of Representatives and the Senate.
He says if that happens, there will be few checks on Donald Trump's ability to act in any way he sees fit.
"Houston, we have a problem. I'm sorry. It's just the truth. I know people often don't like to hear it, but it's absolutely true. We have a personal character problem with Donald Trump. And when you combine it with not unlimited power, but more concentrated power than any recent president has had, we're going to face a crisis at some point. That's such an easy prediction."
