TRANSCRIPT
North Korea's relationship with Russia dates back to the end of the Second World War, when the Japanese Empire collapsed, ending its 35 year occupation of the Korean peninsula.
Without its own government, Korea was temporarily divided along the 38th parallel - by 2 US soldiers looking at a National Geographic map.
The northern half was allied to the Soviet Union.
And the south... to the United States - before the Korean War made the division more permanent.
Now, after decades of growing distance, North Korea's alliance with Russia appears to have entered into a new and potentially dangerous phase.
In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defence pact.
And now, thousands of North Korean troops are reportedly in Russia, gearing up to fight against Ukraine.
Former South Korean Army Lieutenant General, and Distinguished Military Fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Chun In-Bum, says the unprecedented development has the potential to disrupt security dynamics both in Europe and Asia.
"This is the first time in North Korean history that they're sending thousands of ground troops into an area. This military assistance could include direct combat. The real significance lies in what they will be getting from this relationship and what they will do with whatever they get. This is an escalation on the battlefield. This will help the Russians and their efforts to invade and conquer Ukraine. So, a new relationship between North Korea and Russia is blooming and I believe that this is a new challenge, not only for South Korea, but the entire world."
Last week, Seoul's spy agency said around 3,000 North Korean soldiers were training in Vladivostok in eastern Russia.
Ukrainian intelligence puts the figure closer to 12,000.
Reports now suggest they are being transported to the Kursk region in western Russia, where Ukraine launched an incursion in August.
The US has verified the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby says if they fight against Ukraine, they will be legitimate targets.
"If they do deploy, to fight against Ukraine, they're fair game. They're fair targets. So the possibility that there could be dead and wounded North Korean soldiers fighting against Ukraine is, is absolutely real, if they get deployed."
President Putin has neither confirmed nor denied the presence of North Korean troops, but says whatever military cooperation is agreed between the two countries is between them.
Kyiv asserts that any North Korean involvement in Russia's war could constitute a crime of aggression under international law.
North Korea’s foreign ministry says any deployment of its troops to Russia would comply with international law, but it did not confirm whether such a deployment had occurred.
It's believed Russia is paying North Korea for its ground forces.
Lee Hyunseung defected from North Korea with his family ten years ago and spent three years in the North Korean Army.
"We are the unification soldiers. We are the soldiers that can unify the Korean peninsula, so we are always educated that we will unify Korea by force. We never got any indication that we would be deployed to foreign soil."
Hyunseung posted this message on his social media, which he wants North Korean troops to hear.
"There is no reason for you to sacrifice your lives on a foreign battlefield. Kim Jong-un is merely using your lives as a bargaining chip to pocket millions of dollars in secret funds, solely to secure his safety and maintain his power."
He suggests North Korean soldiers would likely have been surprised by their deployment to a foreign conflict.
“We serve from 17 to 27, so I saw the faces, they are less than I would say, 25 years old. So I'm very... feel very frustrated and sad, because they haven't experienced any real freedom, and then they haven't (been) properly treated in North Korea as well."
This development also threatens already deteriorating relations on the Korean peninsula.
In January, Kim Jong Un formally abandoned a longtime official goal of peaceful reunification, calling the south an enemy state.
Hyunseung says the move would have come as a shock to most in North Korea.
"Actually surprised me as well because it's the legacy of the Kim family regime... the final victory of the Korean revolution is the unification."
This month, Pyongyang accused Seoul of sending drones carrying anti-regime leaflets into the northern capital.
The North then demolished several roads leading to the south... after its own months long campaign sending balloons filled with rubbish into South Korea.
The South's conservative government, which returned to power in 2022, is also stepping up its military rhetoric.
South Korea recently moved to bolster its 'three-axis defense system' - the Kill Chain preemptive strike system, the Korea Air and Missile Defense system, and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation Plan - designed to deter the persistent threat posed by North Korea.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol indicated he would also consider sending weapons to Ukraine if North Korean troops fight on the frontlines.
"North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia is a direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions and the UN Charter and is a provocation that goes beyond the Korean Peninsula and Europe to threaten global security."
North Korea's active participation against Ukraine could give NATO an excuse to increase its support for Ukraine, which has long wanted permission to use long range missiles on Russia.
In exchange for Pyongyang's troops, Russia is expected to provide intelligence and more sophisticated military technology, which could include both nuclear and satellite capabilities
Chun In-Bum says it would also give North Korea's previously untested force combat experience, another concern for the military alliance between the US, South Korea and Japan.
“We do not know how the North Korean soldier will perform under fire. This could be a great opportunity for the North Koreans to gain experience under fire. but if they don't perform well this could be a big embarrassment as well as a catastrophe for internal politics in north Korea so they're taking a risk.”
If their gamble pays off - it not only presents a major escalation in Ukraine, but a fundamental power shift in inter-Korea relations, and a major security challenge for the Indo-Pacific region.
