Israel, Hezbollah announce ceasefire - but will it hold?

President Joe Biden Gives Remarks on Isreal-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal

US President Joe Biden comments on the ceasefire deal Source: AAP / Aaron Schwartz/Aaron Schwartz/Sipa USA

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will take effect at 4am local time on Wednesday after both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France. US President Joe Biden says the accord is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities, though many remain sceptical the truce will hold.


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TRANSCRIPT

Israel and Lebanon have accepted a US-backed proposal to end 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah - a political and militant group supported by Iran.

US President Joe Biden was quick to share what he says is good news from the Middle East.

"This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations will not be allowed, I emphasise, will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again."

Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati has welcomed the ceasefire - which has now come into effect.

Mr Netanyahu says there are three reasons Israel has agreed to pursue a ceasefire: to focus on Iran, replenish depleted arms supplies, and to isolate Hamas - the militant and political group that triggered war in the region when it launched an attack on Israel from Gaza last year.

The ceasefire will work like this:

Israeli troops will withdraw from southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah will pull back north of the Litani River, ending its presence in the south.

This will take place over 60 days and will be monitored by the Lebanese army, which has largely remained a bystander in the current war.

An international task force headed by the United States that includes French peacekeepers will also be deployed to oversee the implementation of the truce.

The Lebanese army will then be required to expand its role in Lebanon, to become the only armed body and take over all arms-related activity in the country.

However, Mr Netanyahu has put stringent conditions on the ceasefire, declaring Israel will retain “complete military freedom of action”.

"Hezbollah will violate the cease-fire not only if it fires at us, it will also violate the agreement if it tries to arm itself in order to fire at us in the future. We will respond strongly to any violation of this.”

Professor Shahram Akbarzadeh is the director of Deakin University's Middle East Studies Forum, and says that's reason enough to remain sceptical.

“Netanyahu has acted unilaterally in the past. He reserves the right, he has been very clear about that to act again, if he decides to, we have to take this ceasefire with a grain of salt."

Those who have been displaced also say they remain doubtful.

One displaced woman from southern Lebanon says it's hard for her to trust Israel.

"God willing, Israel is credible and honest about a ceasefire because they change their minds every day. They don’t have any credibility, it’s well known – God willing we will get back to our homes and land."

Up until the ceasefire came into effect, Israel was carrying out air strikes in Beirut.

Gamel Kheir is the secretary of the Lebanese Muslim Association in Australia.

He also doesn't believe the truce will last.

"We've been talking a lot with the people in the north, and the north is overrun with the Syrian refugees and now the Lebanese from the south. But they are confident that the issue will be resolved temporarily, and I stress the word temporarily. This is a cycle. The Lebanese have gone through this for over 20 years."

The sentiment is shared across the border as displaced Israelis say they still fear for their safety.

“Even now, as they are talking about some kind of agreement or some kind of deal with Lebanon, it is not something that I personally feel secure about, and I am also not ready for my family to return to Shlomi.”

Benjamin Netanyahu is confident Israel has reduced the strength of Hezbollah to minimise any threats.

“This is no longer the same Hezbollah. We set it back decades. We eliminated Nasrallah, this is the main axis, we eliminated all the senior officials of the organisation, we destroyed most of its missiles and rockets, we eliminated thousands of terrorists, and we destroyed the underground and terrorist infrastructures near our borders.”

But Professor Akbarzadeh says history tells a different story.

"This might be a tactical win for Netanyahu. This could be a tactical win for Israel. But Hezbollah will regain and recover from this setback and will continue being antagonistic and continue attacking Israel. So any solution to the Hezbollah problem has to be a political one."

Foreign Minister Penny Wong says Australia welcomes the announcement.

"We hope that this is a catalyst for a broader ceasefire in the region, and we look forward to the day there is a ceasefire too in Gaza."

It's a hope shared internationally but Professor Akbarzadeh says that day is likely still far off.

"I don't think Netanyahu would be open to ceasefire talks with Hamas because they have, I think the whole rationale of having a ceasefire with Hezbollah is to concentrate on Gaza and concentrate on destroying Hamas. So I wouldn't be very optimistic about prospects of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel."

Mr Kheir says it means keeping up international pressure on Israel is as important as ever.

"It'd be hypocritical of us to be actually celebrating the fact that there's a ceasefire, even though clearly we're happy that there is a ceasefire. But just across the border, there's a genocide taking place in Gaza. We will not be happy until such time as there's a full ceasefire and this ongoing Palestinian issue must be resolved because it's a blight on humanity until we address it."

 


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