Fear for democracy tops voter concerns, as counting gets underway in 2024 US election

Election 2024 America Votes Montana

People line up to vote in the US state of Montana (AAP) Credit: Tommy Martino/AP

Up for grabs is not just the presidency - but control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.


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TRANSCRIPT

The count has begun in the historic 2024 United States election.

And former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani has made a bold prediction.

"I expect tonight, I told you it's about 300 electoral votes for Trump. I think that most of the swing states will fall in his direction. Maybe out of the three up north we'll miss one."

But whether former president Donald Trump can win over Vice President Kamala Harris remains unknown.

James Fetterman in Wisconsin says the mood is tense.

"Every election seems to be getting exponentially more intense. And yeah, it's not good. It's becoming a source of a lot of divisions, not just between family, but friends and it's I think this is starting to tear people apart from each other."

There's a number of crucial measures on the ballot, with voters in nine states deciding whether or not to put abortion rights in their state constitutions.

Also up for grabs is not just the presidency - but control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Republicans have taken a step towards winning control of the U-S Senate with a victory in West Virginia, while neither party appeared to have an edge in the battle for the House of Representatives.

Dan Osborn is an independent candidate for Nebraska, who some analysts say has altered the path of what was anticipated to be a decisive victory for Republican Deb Fischer.

 "I feel good, you know. It’s kind of crazy. It’s coming to an end today. It’s been a wild ride for sure. We’ve put in a lot of hard work.”

The first presidential races have started to be called, with Donald Trump projected to win Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, and South Carolina.

Kamala Harris is projected to take Vermont, Massachussets, Delaware, and Maryland.

But it's the seven battleground states that could decide the outcome - and the polls have placed the candidates in an almost dead heat.

In the key state of Pennsylvania, security has been established outside the Courthouse in Eerie County as counting begins there.

U-S Washington D-C Mayor Muriel Bowser says the ultimate result may not be clear immediately.

"While we anticipate timely results from D.C. races, the presidential race may take more time. That is expected. All signs point to a close race that could take time for all of the states to release their declared winner."
 
Reuters/Ipsos polling to this point has shown Harris leading among women by 12 percentage points and Trump winning among men by seven percentage points, though it is too early to say if voting has played out on these kinds of gendered lines state by state.

Angie Ocampo is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.

She has told S-B-S Spanish the Latino vote will also be decisive.

 "Latinos are really key populations among what we consider swing states. So these are states that are not already predicted to support one party or another. These states include Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. And the Latino population in these states, not only is big but has also been growing more over time. Latino eligible voters tend to be younger on average. And so as a result, we can expect to see an even continued impact, not only in this election, but in elections to come because more and more Latinos will be turning 18, which is the minimum age of voting in the United States".

Exit polls suggest the higher cost of living has been one of two major themes dominating voting choice in this election, like for first timer Danuraj Rasakumaran.

"I voted for Trump. And I don't know a lot about politics, but I think he's good for the economy. So - but I don't know that much about the election. It's my first time voting."

For New York City voter Devyn Chuang, the other key issue was democracy itself.

 "I voted for Kamala. And I think it's especially important, because of all of the ridiculous, outrageous things that Trump is saying and he's making - he’s trying to make America a fascist state again. And as people of colour and as a woman, I thought it's important that we have to vote this time."

This concern is reflected in the data.

While some polls say immigration and abortion have been strong issues for voters, Edison Research has found nearly three-quarters of surveyed voters - or 75 percent - say American democracy is under threat.

But there’s two caveats to this.

First, the figures represent just a slice of the tens of millions of people who have voted, both before and on election day, and the preliminary results are subject to change through the course of the night as more people are surveyed.

And second, these survey results don't necessarily mean that voters agree on what - or who - the threat actually is.

For Tennessee voter, Donovan Benge, it's Donald Trump.

"Being a veteran I served our country to uphold our constitution and my oath said to protect America against all threats domestic and foreign."

But Trump voter Heather Dowling in Florida says it's the Democrats.

"Hopefully we get the results by the end of the day, but I seriously doubt it. They need serious time to try to cheat and try to rig it as much as possible. But I really think this time around it's going to be way too big to rig this time."

In Ohio, a group of migrants from Haiti are fearful either way.

Haitian Community Alliance spokesperson Jacob Payen says they worry about being attacked no matter who wins the presidency.

"Let's say if Vice President Kamala Harris get elected, we're going to see some tension. Because we're going to see some anger coming out from the Proud Boys, the white supremacist group, the far right. We're going to find some issues with them. Let's say if Mr Trump get elected, now what's going to happen? A lot of people who didn't want to come out aggressively at first, they may come out more aggressively and posing more threats to us. Now they're going to feel like they in power."

No matter who wins, history will be made.

Harris would become the first woman, and black South Asian American, to win the presidency if she gets the required 270 electoral college votes.

The 78-year-old Trump is the only president to be impeached twice and the first former leader to be criminally convicted, and would also become the first to win non-consecutive terms in more than a century.



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