TRANSCRIPT
The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney conducts research in American foreign policy and its impact on Australia.
For the second year, the centre performed a study of public opinion in both Australia and the United States about the foreign policy of these two countries towards China.
This year, the Japanese population was also included to give a broader vision.
Jared Mondschein is Director of Research at the institute and one of the authors of the report.
"We poll a thousand people in Australia, a thousand people in the United States, a thousand people in Japan. What people think of strategic competition, but also what they want from it. You know, a lot of polls would ask do you like this country, do you not like this country... but what we try to do with our polling is going a bit deeper."
Jared Mondschein says the first finding from the report is that the three countries share a similar and growing weariness towards China.
"The US, Australia, and Japan, see China very similarly, often within 10 to 20 percent points in terms of, generally, their negative sentiment. And they also generally, broadly, agree with working together. What we want to do with our polling is going to the next level. How much are you going to put your skin in the game? What is the limit of this cooperation?'
The reports finds Australians in general support an assertive policy in front of China, sometimes even higher than in the two other countries.
It finds that Australians are twice as likely as Japanese to support American military presence in their country, and only 17 percent of Australia finds American policy towards China too aggressive.
Forty-two percent of Australians believe AUKUS makes them more secure, against 14 percent who believe the opposite, the rest having no opinion or thinking it makes no difference.
And with 46 percent saying Australia should military defend Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion, Australians are actually more likely to support such a move than Japanese or American people.
Victoria Cooper is the Research Editor at the centre and a co-author of the report.
"Australians have been quite reticent towards war, we don't speak passionately about our foreign policy, we don't have the same sort of reverence that you see in the United States. So that's also finding that Australians are more in favour of putting their military boots on the ground if Taiwan was being invaded, alongside the United States."
She notes however that this discrepancy may say less about Australians and more about the Americans.
"Perhaps it's also a sort of signal of America's bend towards isolationism and want to focus on issues at home, in Trump's language we hear that as American First, in Biden's language we hear that as a foreign policy for the middle class."
A lot of the findings of the study are read in the framework of the upcoming presidential election in the United States.
Jassie H. Cheng is a Research Associate at the Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, and she comments on her reading of the report.
"One of the most important points of the report is the impact of the US 2024 election on the US-Australia alliance. I think it's quite interesting that there are 37 percent of Australian respondents who feel that Australia should dump the US alliance if Trump returns to the presidency next year."
The study shows the perception of Mr Trump's foreign policy is rather negative in Australia.
"In foreign policy, more Trumpism would mean more isolationism and a great more unilateral decisions, right? We can also see that the hard right Republicans, they have been the most significant resistance to the transfer of nuclear submarines."
Victoria Cooper agrees this is the way Mr Trump's foreign policy is viewed in Australian, and also in Japan, but she challenges whether this perception is actually accurate.
"Especially compared to a second Biden term, there is some kind of resistance about a second Trump term. You know China is kind of a bipartisan foreign policy in the United States, especially when it comes to Congress, the way Congress managed to pass a lot of its bipartisan legislation including about infrastructure, the CHIPS act... A lot of that has been framed in terms of competitiveness with China because it resonates with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress."
Jared Mondschein also tried to determine if people are ready to make sacrifices to support a policy of competitiveness with China.
"We found, US, Australian, and Japanese, at 95 percent, want a phone not made in China. But then we'll ask, if you have a phone made in China, or a phone not made in China that's 500 dollars more expensive, which phone do you want? And we found across the three countries about two thirds are willing to pay for a phone, 500 dollars more, for a phone not made in China. So that, to me, tells me that there is some interest and willingness for people to, at least rhetorically, pay more for this strategic competition."
The study shows that a third of Australians would agree to pay more taxes to make their military more competitive in front China against almost half opposing it, with comparable figures coming from American respondents.
