TRANSCRIPT:
Ahmad Mwahid is from Sermin village, east of Idlib in Syria.
He's one of an estimated 12 million Syrians who have been displaced both internally and abroad by the civil war raging in the country - the largest displacement crisis in the world.
He says he hopes the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is defeated.
“Well, we are following the battle news and God willing the regime will fall. We are counting the days (until we can return), as the kids get tired and shocked. So we left and came here with our clothes on and nothing else. God willing, we will be victorious over Bashar al Assad’s regime and return to our area safely.”
But that appears unlikely.
Days after a group of insurgents swept into the city of Aleppo in a surprise offensive, President Bashar al-Assad has vowed to crush them.
Now, Russian and Syrian jets have struck parts of northern Syria.
It's not the first time Russia has come to the Syrian government's aid.
Middle East analyst Rahul Pathak says that back in 2011, Russia's support of the Assad regime helped it regain lost territory.
"It's one of the biggest challenges that Bashar al-Assad has ever had to face during his time as Syrian leader since 2000 and since the civil war began in 2011. It's very similar to the situation that he found himself in when the civil war first began. The rebels back then enjoyed significant success. They captured large parts of the country, specifically in the north and the east. Aleppo is actually in the north of the country. And what turned the tide for him back then was the support of Russia, primarily the Russian Air Force. It allowed his forces to retake much of that lost territory. And since 2020, the conflict has reached a bit of a stalemate."
The rebel group, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also referred to as H-T-S, is an Islamist political and military group that prior to this offensive controlled parts of Idlib.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was formerly known as al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, but broke away in 2016, distancing and renaming itself in an attempt to publicly separate itself from the reputation of al-Qaeda.
Shadad al-Musana is a fighter in that rebel force - he says they had noble motives.
"Our main goal was to expel the gangs that were in Aleppo, as they oppressed the people with extreme injustice and suffering. This is the greatest proof that we entered to lift the oppression from them, and everyone around us here are civilians. When we entered, all the people gathered around us with greetings, kind words, and flowers. Our first and primary goal is to free the detainees, restore the areas that the regime has seized, and eliminate this unjust regime.”
Ibrahim Al-Assil is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He has told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle that while many of the fighters are simply people who want to return to their homes, that is not the full picture.
"There are also people, or there are also fighters who are radicals and who are militants among HTS and who are also oppressing other people. So I don't see this as a step towards liberation. I think it's a change in the balance of power. Many people have hope. Many people are really afraid of what will happen next, but many people, and I think most Syrians, have the mix of both feelings, and they are contradicting feelings, but many Syrians are worried about what's going to happen tomorrow, and they are just afraid that this will intensify the fighting, and sooner or later, there will be air strikes by the regime, and there will be another cycle of violence that take place inside Syria."
Working alongside H-T-S are Kurdish fighters and Türkiye-backed soldiers.
Turkiye is a long time backer of Syrian rebel groups, though in recent years has made attempts to normalise relations with Syria.
Robert Ford is the former U-S Ambassador to Syria and says the fighting may become more destabilising if Russia and Türkiye are drawn in.
"And so we see that the Syrian civil war, which has been going on now really since 2012, has suddenly flared up again in this one location up in northwestern Syria. Does it mean that the Syrian government is about to collapse? No, but it does suggest, that the war is heating up a bit and will heat up until Turkey and Russia come to an agreement about a new ceasefire."
There are also around 900 U-S personnel stationed in northern Syria, working to support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to control the Islamic State group.
While the United States does not support the Assad regime, U-S National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has told C-N-N that it's a complicated situation.
"The group at the vanguard of this rebel advance, HTS is actually a terrorist organisation designated by the United States, so we have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organisation. At the same time, of course, we don't cry over the fact that the Assad government backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure, so it's a complicated situation. It's one we are monitoring closely."
Research fellow and Co-Founder of the Syrian Studies Centre at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, Ibrahim Hamidi, says as of right now, the rebel forces seem to be solely focused on attacking government forces.
"You know I spoke some reporters on the ground in Aleppo and Idlib. It seems as of now, the leaders of the armed groups, I mean the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), they give clear instructions to their fighters not to harm any civilians, not to attack any properties, to just, to try to control the city militarily. I think they are in a way inspired by the Taliban experience in Afghanistan, so they are trying to copy that model, so they are trying to control the city and they are trying to try to let the locals to control the city, but let's see what is going to happen."
For Fouad Sayed Issa, the founder of Violet Aid, a Syrian refugee and youth-led humanitarian group, that means the displacement crisis is set to worsen.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says in five days of clashes between rebel and government forces in the north, at least 412 people, including 61 civilians, have been killed.
He has told Al-Jazeera that if the fighting continues over the next few days, around one million people in Aleppo will be displaced to the northwest.
"Around 5 million people were stuck in their houses in Aleppo city for some days. And then our teams joined yesterday morning with the other emergency team to Aleppo city, to try to provide the immediate needs, the bread, food and water for the people."
