Key Points
- Chinese leader Xi Jinping will not attend this weekend's G20 Summit in Delhi.
- It will be the first time a Chinese leader has skipped the event in its history.
- Experts say it may be due to icy China-India relations.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be at the G20 summit in the Indian capital New Delhi at the weekend, but China's President Xi Jinping will be a notable no-show.
Xi's absence raises questions about the relationship between China and India and Chinese diplomacy as a whole.
Since its creation in 1999, the yearly summit has been attended by every Chinese president, including Xi.
The summit, which focuses on economic cooperation, takes place every year in a different country. The G20, or Group of 20, comprises 19 countries plus the European Union.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang will be at this year's summit in place of Xi.
Why is Xi Jinping not attending this year's G20 Summit?
Dr Jennifer Hsu is a senior visiting research fellow at the University of New South Wales. She has noted tensions between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
"There is concern about Xi not attending as being a snob towards India," she said. But we do know thatand this G20 summit comes at a difficult time."
Jared Mondschein of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney agrees.
"There are some issues about the way that India and China have gone along recently, or really, haven't got along!" he said.
"As much as the US and Australia have welcomed India's participation in the Quad (a security dialogue comprising Australia, India, Japan and the US) with open arms, you can say they were pushed there by Xi Jinping and his aggressive foreign policy."
China is part of the BRICS economic group that also includes Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. At its annual summit, held in South Africa in August, Xi announced six new countries - Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Ethiopia and Egypt - will be joining the group from the start of next year.
China and Russia had been pushing for some time for more countries to join, something that worries India.
Hsu said there's concerns among the other BRICS nations that China is trying to make it a China-centric consortium of actors.
"We've seen Xi Jinping being very active in bringing new members that are going to be very friendly to China and in many ways depending on trade with China," she said.
Mondschein said the BRICS summit exposed cracks in the relationship between Beijing and New Delhi.
"India has a long history of being seen as a voice for the so-called Global South, especially given its history with the Non-Aligned Movement. So I don't think India is too keen on diluting its power within BRICS," he said.
Relations between Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (pictured) are viewed as frosty.
Deflation, crises in the real estate sector, crackdowns on private businesses and loss of confidence in investors, not to mention rising unemployment, especially among young people, are all issues for Xi to address.
Wen-ti Sung is a non-resident fellow at US think tank the Atlantic Council's Global China hub.
"We know the Xi Jinping era has been principally about increasing the centralisation of power," he told SBS News.
"But one thing that is logical to him is that so many more decisions now have to be made by the Party's centre, a lot of time it means personally decided by President Xi Jinping."
He said this means ventures into foreign affairs are becoming more dangerous for the Chinese leader.
"Before the BRICS summit a few weeks ago, Xi had only been abroad once in a year. We could reasonably expect that President Xi will travel less and less.
"As President Xi is becoming more indispensable to the daily running of China's governance itself, it's more costly for President Xi to go out to international troubles."
LISTEN TO
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Michael Green, CEO of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, also thinks international visits may expose Xi to criticism.
"Although India and China are both in the BRICS together, the fact is their strategic rivalry is deepening," he told SBS News.
"Xi did not feel obligated to hand a victory to Prime Minister Modi, and probably also would have been weary of a gathering where many of the leaders would have criticised China for its economic performance and its treatment of investors."
He thinks this G20 could have been an embarrassing experience for Xi.
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Why is Xi Jinping missing the G20 for the first time ever?
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"Chinese economic performance is weak, criticism of China is on the rise, and particularly, India, as host of the G20, would not attack China but as hosts of the G20 it's not going to go out of its way to insulate China from criticism from the US or Australia or European leaders."
What are G20 summits about?
The G20 is like the G7 (Group of Seven) and BRICS, a meeting of leaders.
They will talk, and potentially agree on things, but this is not the UN, or NATO, or the European Union, which has binding agreements.
Still Mondschein says it has a record of bringing governments to act in the face of global crises.
"It has a history of aligning governments, and making key decisions, may it be during financial crises, or COVID. The G20 definitely has a role."
What Xi is missing are chances to meet other world leaders.
For Australia, it may also mean a missed opportunity for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to meet his Chinese counterpart.
Green said it was more of a loss for Australia than China and: "clearly this was not a major factor for Xi Jinping deciding whether to go or not".
US President Joe Biden also lamented the missed chance for discussions between the two world leaders, Mondschein said.
"President Biden made it clear that he was hoping to meet with Xi Jinping at the G20 but again, Xi Jinping runs his own show and has decided against that."
But otherwise, the G20 should proceed normally and suffer little from Xi's absence, Green said.
