For the past week, the streets of Belarus have been filled with angry protesters, following the landslide, yet disputed, election victory of long-time President Alexander Lukashenko.
But the mood among demonstrators is shifting from anger and despair to hope, as Belarusians appeal for change from the authoritarian leader who has ruled their country for 26 years.
As tens of thousands of people on Sunday filled the centre of the capital, Minsk, there was a sense among some demonstrators Belarus could be on the precipice of a new beginning.
Experts say the situation in Belarus remains “dangerous and volatile", with authorities struggling to find a way to contain the unrest.
Belarusians attend a rally in support of the Belarusian opposition and the results of the Belarusian presidential election in Minsk. Source: AAP
“I think the current situation can be described as a political cliffhanger, where the Belarusian president and authorities demonstrate a degree of political paralysis,” Alexey Muraviev, the head of Curtin University's Department of Social Sciences and Security Studies, told SBS News.
“They are in desperate search of a solution, while losing popular support on the ground, while losing support of its principal ally Russia, while disgracing themselves in the eyes of liberal West.”
A ‘rigged’ election result
Mr Lukashenko, who has been referred to as Europe’s last dictator, was elected president of the ex-Soviet country in 1994.
In that time, his leadership style has become increasingly authoritarian, facing allegations of human rights abuses and suppression of his political opponents.
A week ago, Mr Lukashenko won his sixth presidential election, claiming 80 per cent of the vote, which critics say is an impossibly wide margin of victory.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko holds a meeting in the Strategic Management Centre of the Belarusian Defence Ministry on 15 August. Source: AAP
While European election monitors have raised concerns about the fairness and accuracy of Belarusian elections in the past, they weren’t invited to monitor the vote this year until it was too late.
Thousands of Belarusian opposition supporters have since taken to the streets claiming the vote was rigged.
But they've been met by a fierce police crackdown, which has included the use of batons and rubber bullets on protesters by authorities. At least 6,700 people have been arrested since the start of the protests, with officials confirming at least two deaths.
“I don’t think Alexander Lukashenko expected such a popular backlash,” associate professor Muraviev said.
“I don’t know whether it’s a result of the shortcomings and the assessments within his own apparatus, or whether it’s just simple blindness to the reality - or a combination of both.”
Protests mount
On Sunday, tens of thousands of opposition supporters gathered in Minsk for what a local independent news site called the largest protest rally in the history of an independent Belarus.
Demonstrators raised victory signs and held flowers and balloons.
"A new Belarus is beginning," one mother of six told AFP. “I’m very happy to be seeing this with my own eyes."
Associate professor Muraviev said he thinks Belarusians "genuinely want change".
"They want to see a new face, they are getting tired of [the] dictatorial way of governance."
But he said while tensions on the street seem to be defusing, the level of protest is not slowing.
Popular opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, had called for a weekend of protests after leaving for neighbouring Lithuania following the election result.
And Mr Lukashenko is rejecting calls to stand down.
"I called you here ... for the first time in a quarter-century, to defend your country and its independence,” he told a smaller group of supporters at a rally before Sunday's large opposition protest.
Associate professor Muraviev said the level of support Mr Lukashenko claims to have is not displayed in the same magnitude as his opposition.
Protesters in Minsk, Belarus, on 15 August. Source: AAP
“If we’re talking about a leader who claims he had 80 per cent of the electorate voting for him, where are the supporters?”
'A difficult position’ with Russia
With pressure growing on the street, Mr Lukashenko has reached out to Russia - once its close ally - with Moscow saying it is ready to provide military help if needed.
The Kremlin said that in a call with Mr Lukashenko, President Vladimir Putin expressed a "readiness to provide the needed assistance", including through the CSTO military alliance between six ex-Soviet states "if necessary".
It comes after Mr Lukashenko issued criticisms of Russia during his election campaign and Belarus detained 33 Russians on suspicion of planning riots ahead of polls.
Opposition protesters have criticised Mr Lukashenko for now seeking Moscow's aid and say they fear a Russian intervention.
“I think there is definitely a degree of desperation on Lukashenko’s part,” associate professor Muraviev said, adding the detention of Russian nationals was a "red line” the president crossed.
“In my view, I think he was trying to, on one hand, play into the hands of the Western discourse by trying to accuse Russia of interfering in the elections.”
But, associate professor Muraviev says, that seems to have backfired.
“He put himself in a very delicate position with regards to Putin and his relationship with the Kremlin. He now has to go and explain why all of a sudden he was accusing Russia of trying to interfere in Belarusian internal politics.”
Associate professor Muraviev said he thinks Russia is “in two minds” about intervening.
Russian President Vladimir Putin Source: AAP
“One one hand, they don’t really see an alternative for Lukashenko. They don’t see a figure in Belarusian politics they can back up, in the sense this figure would be loyal to Moscow,” he said.
“On the other hand, Russia is caught in this situation where it can no longer afford to pretend to simply dismiss or ignore tricks and improvisations that Lukashenko has been known for for a long time.”
What now?
Associate professor Muraviev said he can envisage three scenarios moving forward - the first being Mr Lukashenko being compelled to engage in constitutional reform.
“The current formula under which Belarus is being reigned is not even the institution of the president, it’s the institution of the person,” he explained.
“Clearly it’s no longer working. He has been in power since 1994.”
The next scenario would be the military, which continues to pledge loyalty to Mr Lukashenko, gaining power, which would see Belarus slide into some form of military dictatorship.
“This can last for a certain period of time but cannot become a permanent situation for the country and its people,” associate professor Muraviev said.
“The third option is for Mr Lukashenko to see himself through this transition period, achieve a degree of stability in the country by means of suppression, and then effectively find an arrangement by which he would be able to step out from being the president, and either going into exile or appoint someone who would act as his proxy while he is still able to pull the strings.”
With additional reporting by Omar Dehen and AFP.
