Key Points
- Australia is on track for its hottest winter since records began.
- Spring is expected to be hotter than average in almost every region of the country.
- Below average rainfall is also looking likely.
Australia is on track to record its hottest winter and forecasters are predicting spring to tip the mercury well above average almost everywhere in the country.
Official records of the final two days of winter are yet to be formalised, but the season is tracking to be 1.54C above the 1961-1990 average.
That would break the previous record for warmest winter, set in 1996, of 1.46C above average for that period, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
An unusually hot, dry spring awaits
Meteorologists warn spring is likely to be much hotter and drier than usual.
“This is very different to last year’s for spring, which was the second wettest spring on record,” BOM senior climatologist Lynette Bettito said.
BoM climate services manager Karl Braganza said spring was likely to have unusually warm days for most of the country, particularly Western Australia and parts of the south-east.
The Bureau of Meteorology's maximum temperature forecast. Source: Supplied / Bureau of Meteorology
Included in that forecast is every capital city, from Darwin down to Hobart, and Sydney across to Perth, while only the Cape York Peninsula and southwest Tasmania could see close-to-normal conditions.
According to predictions, every state has a more than 50 per cent chance of recording temperatures in the highest 20 per cent on record.
Western Australia in particular has a high chance of recording temperatures in the highest 20 per cent, while parts of inland NSW have a high likelihood.
Source: Supplied / Bureau of Meteorology
The first significant rains of this year's northern Australian wet season, which officially begins in October, are likely to be later than usual, according to the BoM.
BoM senior climatologist Catherine Ganter explained that, with an El Niño weather event expected, the addition of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could mean even drier conditions than would occur with either event on its own.
"This increases our chances of below average rainfall for much of south-eastern and central Australia," she said.
The BoM is yet to declare that an El Niño event will definitely happen, as only three of four criteria for an official declaration have been met.
BoM senior hydrologist Masoud Edraki said the global climate system was looking very unusual, but it was unclear how much of a role global warming would play.
"Record high warm sea surface temperatures in all of the global oceans are likely to continue to impact the weather we experience for many months," he said.
"We don't know yet how global warming, and particularly the increased warmth in the oceans, is affecting our typical climate drivers.
"We'll continue to monitor this closely and how it is likely to affect Australia's climate forecast."
What's the bushfire forecast for spring?
With the south-west and parts of the east likely to experience drier than usual conditions comes an increased risk of bushfires.
"The recent wildfires in Canada and Hawaii underscore risks that Australians are familiar with, in particular the catastrophic potential of fires that can occur near urban areas during periods of low rainfall," Braganza said.
The outlook from the Australian Fire Authorities Council shows an increased bushfire risk across much of southern and central Queensland, northern and central NSW, including coastal areas, the central Northern Territory and parts of South Australia and Victoria.
“There’s always a risk of dangerous and destructive fires in Australia during spring,” Bettito said.
“With warm weather, grasses can quickly dry out and increase the risk of fast-moving fires"
“Now is the time to prepare and review your bushfire plan, wherever you are."
