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No more 'middle children': What Australia's record low birth rate means
The fall in the birth rate in Australia has surprised experts who say it could irreversibly change family dynamics and how communities function.
Published 19 October 2024 6:36am
By Charis Chang
Source: SBS News
Image: Australia's birth rate is declining with significant ramifications for family relationships. (Getty / CokaPoka/iStockphoto)
Australia's falling birth rate could have significant ramifications for family dynamics and could see middle children become increasingly rare.
Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this week show the total fertility rate in 2023 dropped to a record low of 1.5 babies per woman.
Demographer Dr Liz Allen, a lecturer at the Australian National University, says Australia is at a crossroads, and if the birth rate drops below 1.5, it will be difficult to bring it back up.
She points to countries such as Japan and South Korea, which are experiencing ultra-low birth rates below 1.4 children per woman.
What happens is attitudes and social norms become entrenched, and they are incredibly stubborn and very difficult to turn around.Dr Liz Allen, ANU demographer
In these countries, it's become normal for couples to only have one or two children, or to not have children at all.
The shift to smaller families in Australia will likely bring big changes to relationships, social ties and networks.
"Gone are the days of the middle children," Allen says, adding: "And the middle child tends to be the negotiator."
Australia's total fertility rate reached a new low of 1.5 in 2023. Source: Supplied
"Long gone is that notion of familial support," Allen says.
The lack of extended family will also place more pressure on couples who do choose to have children as they will have fewer siblings or other family members to lean on for support during their childbearing years.
"[There will need to be a] reconsideration of how we support people and how we support families, and the realisation that the family dynamics as we once knew them are no longer," Allen says.
Young people feel hopeless about the future
While having fewer children is not a problem in itself, Allen says what is concerning is that young people appear to be losing hope for the future, and this is partly driving the trend.
"Many young people are saying 'we still want to have kids' but the data really shows that they're unlikely to achieve those intentions or desires, and that's because life gets in the way," Allen says.
Over the past two decades, it's become increasingly difficult for couples to get ahead financially without a dual income in Australia.
Even renting has become unaffordable in some areas, and Allens says job insecurity has also become an issue, with many young people and women forced into casual or part-time employment.
It is near impossible to break into the housing market, and historically, home ownership has been this stepping stone towards establishing a family.Dr Liz Allen, ANU demographer
Outdated gender norms compound the problem further: many and don't offer men the opportunity to work part-time or more flexibly.
"Add this layer of climate [change concern], and young people are saying 'there's no future here'," Allen says.
Almost a quarter of women may never have children
Terry Rawnsley, an urban economist with KPMG, says if the downward trend continues, almost a quarter of women may never have children in their lifetimes.
ABS statistics show that 16.4 per cent of women aged 45-49 in 2021 did not have children, and Rawnsley expects to see that figure increase by the next update in 2026.
The percentage of women aged between 45 and 49 who don't have children is rising. Source: SBS News
He says there has been a broad social trend moving away from larger families, and that may subconsciously influence the decisions couples make.
But he agrees affordability may be a deciding factor.
"Women, for example, might go to university, finish there [at age] 22 or 23 — they've got a big HECS bill they want to get on top of — then they've got to save a deposit for a home," he says.
"They're probably having that first child in their early 30s, and the later you start having children, the more challenging it is to have a larger family."
Rawnsley says better support should be provided for young people, including improved paid parental leave policies, increased availability and affordability of childcare, and measures to address housing affordability.
"All these kind of support mechanisms would encourage that birth rate to start to trend upwards."
He notes that birth rates rose to around two children per woman in 2008, in the wake of Australia's mining boom in the early 2000s, which funded generous tax cuts.
"The economy was really strong, and the birth rate went up."
Migrant women are more likely to have smaller families
Rawnsley's analysis of ABS data also shows that women born overseas have fewer children compared to those born in Australia.
In particular, those from north-east Asian countries such as China, Japan and Korea — where birth rates have been low for a long time — have the lowest birth rates in Australia.
Birth rates among women who were not born in Australia are lower than the country's average. Source: Getty / Roc Canals
This compares to 1.69 for those born in Australia and 1.99 for those born in North Africa and the Middle East. Overall, the birth rate for those born overseas is 1.34.
While the statistics partly reflect societal expectations of the women's countries of birth, Rawnsley says it's also likely linked to the difficulty of raising children without community support.
"If you're raised here, you've got that support network; you can rely on grandparents or extended family," he says.
"If you're a new migrant, you won't [necessarily] have those support networks.
"One child may be doable, but without the broader village to help raise the second child, it becomes more challenging."
'Urgent' action is needed to reverse the decline
Allen says experts have known about the decline in birth rates for decades. It has not been above the replacement rate of 2.1 since 1975.
"What is new is the urgency, and the stark reality that we find ourselves in where we are now having to do more to address these issues than we would have done had we wholeheartedly considered meaningful policy responses in the 1990s," she says.
Now we're confronted with the very likely possibility in Australia that by the mid-2050s, Australia will have more deaths than births.Dr Liz Allen, ANU demographer
Allen says no country has managed to reverse the trend towards declining birth rates.
But living standards will go backward if Australia can't find a way to address its shrinking taxpayer base as the country ages.
"If Australia is serious about turning this around, housing affordability must be invested in.
"Economic security, the area of gender inequality must be addressed, and of course — climate change. These are the biggest issues and are front of mind for young people."
