The assassination of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s half-brother was unexpected, despite a long history of such killings at the hands of the regime.
From the early 2000s, Kim Jong-nam no longer lived in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. For the past few years, the once heir-apparent had completely gone to ground, jumping from South East Asian countries like Macau, Singapore and China. He was in virtual exile.
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And in the aftermath of his public death at a Kuala Lumpur airport, theories are developing as to who killed him, and why.
For British expert on North Korean affairs, Aidan Foster-Carter, his theory on the ‘who’ echoes a consensus reached by many other analysts.
“In terms of motive it’s hard to see who would want him dead other than someone connected to the current leadership in North Korea,” he told SBS News.
But Mr Foster-Carter speculates the kill order may not have come from Kim Jong-un.
“It’s always possible under a regime like this that – we saw this with the Nazis, or with Stalin – that an agency keen to prove its worth have done this even without an order from the leader in order to impress him,” he said.
“And it just so happens, a month or so ago, Kim Jong-un fired the head of the secret police – and they’re supposed to be undergoing an investigation.
“So if we say North Korea did it, which seems the likeliest – who else would do it? – doesn’t necessarily mean Kim Jong-un did it. It may be somebody who had a past trouble with him now trying to curry a favour with him.
Kim Jong-Nam was a vocal critic of the North Korean regime, after he was exiled from the country in the early 2000s. Source: AAP
“I stress it’s speculation, but it seems to me that it’s not impossible. Maybe they just thought it was time to do something really spectacular.”
Dr Leonid Petrov, from the Australian National University, said there is no doubt the two half-brothers did not get along. This is despite Kim Jong-nam’s previous claims that the pair never met.
"Partly because he comes from a different branch of the Kim dynasty and also Kim Jong-nam's son was very vocal, giving interviews where he criticised the North Korean succession system,” Dr Petrov said.
“At one stage when he studied in France, Kim Jong-nam's son was threatened to be kidnapped and taken to North Korea so there was a lot of bad blood between the two half-brothers and potential assassination is conceivable."
“The timing is weird because this guy had been sort of vague trouble for Kim Jong-un in terms of some of the stuff that he said, but it was four or five years ago,” added Mr Foster-Carter.
“Everyone had forgotten about him and he’d gone to ground. So the timing is pretty strange.”
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The strange timing though, Mr Foster-Carter said, could have been timed to coincide with the birthday of Kim Jong-il on February 16.
“And that’s a big public holiday in North Korea. So it could be kind of a birthday present, if you like, for the leader," he said.
“It was almost James Bond-ish in terms of the methods apparently used.”
Mr Foster-Carter recalled North Korea’s long history of assassinating public figures.
“We know for a fact, that the uncle of both these men – Jang Song-thaek – was executed in December 2013. That was done publicly; he was dragged out of a meeting on television,” he explained.
“Kim Jong-un is ruthless and this was a man very senior, had his own power networks, and had helped Kim Jong-un’s rise to power as a sort of mentor. But he was utterly disposable.
“Going further than that time, there is a record of the long arm of North Korea reaching outside its own state, as well as a number of executions within the country – not all of them confirmed.
“They hunted down a diplomat who defected in Thailand, captured him but the car overturned and the man managed to get away.
If proven to masterminded by North Korea, Kim Jong-Nam's murder follows a long and bloodied history of Pyonyang-ordered assassinations. Source: AAP
“There was a cousin of Kim Jong-nam who defected to South Korea in the 1990s, and he was mysteriously assassinated, and so on. It’s not common, but they do do this. So it is not out of the ordinary.”
But Dr Petrov believes there could potentially be other suspects.
"Kim Jong-nam was involved in some murky dealings in Southeast Asia raising money for the family,” he theorised.
“Potentially it could be organised crime in Southeast Asia, mafia groups in Southeast Asia, in Macau...he often travelled to China and Russia so potentially there could be different scenarios and suspects."
