D-day has arrived in the NSW Upper Hunter, as voters head to the polls for a by-election that could steal the Berejiklian government's majority or topple the opposition leader.
Polling stations in the Upper Hunter electorate opened at 8am on Saturday, with 13 would-be parliamentarians on the ballot.
Candidates and leaders are scurrying around the NSW electorate in a bid to shore up votes, with recent polling suggesting a tight race between Nationals candidate David Layzell and Labor's Jeff Drayton.
More than 40 per cent of the electorate had already made their minds up before Saturday, with some 23,000 votes cast early.
Opposition leader Jodi McKay was pictured laughing with Mr Drayton as he voted at Muswellbrook with his family - including daughter Ella who was able to cast a ballot for her father in her first election.
However, the poll is shaping up as an important test for Ms McKay's leadership, already under pressure.
Labor candidate for Upper Hunter Jeff Drayton speaks to the media after casting his vote in the NSW Upper Hunter by-election in Muswellbrook. Source: AAP
By-elections have historically proved difficult for sitting governments to win, so a failure to turn the seat red could push her leadership to the brink.
But Ms McKay on Saturday brushed off the speculation, saying everyone was focused on the people of the Upper Hunter - not her.
"They are the most important thing today," she said.
In a last-ditch appeal to voters, Mr Drayton said he would fix years of neglect suffered under the Nationals, who have held the seat for 90 years.
"I'm ready to go - ready to go to Macquarie Street and fight for people of the Upper Hunter's fair share," he said.
"Now's the time."
Unsurprisingly, the Nationals are arguing now is definitely not the time.
Their campaign has hinged on the need for stable government, and while Mr Drayton is asking voters to give him a chance, the Nationals are asking for a second.
Party leader John Barilaro, a regular on the campaign trail with David Layzell, has urged the electorate to wait until 2023 to send the government a message.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian also pointed out the Nationals candidate is the only one of the 13 that would actually be part of the team governing the state if elected.
"We do need a strong team in government (and) I do rely on great local members," she said alongside the deputy premier and Mr Layzell in Muswellbrook.
It's a must-win election for the Berejiklian government, which will lose its working majority unless the Nationals hold the seat. Source: AAP
"As premier, you'd like to think you're in every corner of the state every day, but you can't be."
It's a must-win election for the Berejiklian government, which will lose its working majority unless the Nationals hold the seat.
But Mr Layzell said he only feels the pressure of delivering for locals.
"I haven't looked at it from that point of view," he said.
"The big burden for me is actually the weight of responsibility - that I don't let anyone down, to be quite honest."
With such a crowded field, neither party is likely to win the seat outright.
Labor candidate for Upper Hunter Jeff Drayton greets Nationals candidate for Upper Hunter Dave Layzell. Source: AAP
Preferences from other candidate are tipped to decide the contest.
Sue Gilroy is running for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, while One Nation has chosen Dale McNamara. Both have touted coal mining credentials, as have Mr Drayton and Mr Layzell.
On the other end of the spectrum is independent and fifth-generation farmer Kirsty O'Connell, who has drawn the support of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, and Greens candidate Sue Abbott.
Both are running on a promise to transition the area away from reliance on coal.
The poll was sparked by Nationals MP Michael Johnsen's resignation in March over sexual assault allegations and a sexting scandal.
Mr Johnsen denies the allegations and has not been charged.
