KEY POINTS
- The AMA suggested that GPs were working under increased pressure to keep pace with demand.
- The shortage of GPs varies significantly between each state and territory, and metro and rural locations.
Australia's doctor shortage is set to worsen over the next decade, with new analysis projecting a future undersupply of more than 10,000 general practitioners (GPs) across the nation.
The report from the Australian Medical Association (AMA) found the national shortage of GPs in 2020 was 860, but if nothing is done to attract or retain the workforce, the number could blow out to around 10,600 by 2031-32.
Demand for GPs across Australia increased by 58 per cent between 2009 and 2019, but the equivalent of 4,200 full-time doctors were added to the workforce between 2016 and 2021.
The AMA suggested that GPs were working under increased pressure to keep pace with demand.
"We are staring at this unimaginable shortage of GPs in our future and our projections show these pressures are just not going to ease up," AMA President Professor Steve Robson said.
"We simply should not be in this position, but it's clear the short-sighted policies of successive Commonwealth governments have failed the community."
Where is the biggest GP shortage?
The shortage of GPs varies significantly between each state and territory, and metro and rural locations.
Queensland had the highest rates of GPs in 2020 with 122.9 for every 100,000 people, while the Northern Territory had the lowest rates at just 88.7 per 100,000 people.
NSW and South Australia have the second and third-highest rates of GPs in Australia, while the ACT and Tasmania round out the bottom three.
An Australian Bureau of Statics survey found that in the year to June 2022, almost 40 per cent of patients who saw a GP for urgent medical care waited at least 24 hours.
Doctors booked out for months
Tasmanian GP Toby Gardner said he was booked out at his Launceston practice until March.
The practice had 28 GPs and still struggled to meet demand.
"Where I live and work in northern Tasmania, we are short around 20–30 GPs, and it’s set to get worse because we’re seeing GPs retire and not be replaced, and fewer junior doctors are going into GP training," he told the NewsGP outlet.
"My books are full of patients with complex, chronic health issues, and we’ve also seen a huge surge in people needing treatment for mental health issues. And they need a lot of time, which puts more strain on our capacity to see other patients."
Nicole Higgins, a GP in Mackay in North Queensland and the president of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, also said she was booked out until January.
"This is really significant," she told SBS News.
"But that being said, most people can access general practice care very quickly and very easily. It's just sometimes getting the doctor of their choice is the problem."
Nicole Higgins, a GP in Mackay in North Queensland and the president of the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, is also booked out until January. Source: Supplied
How will a GP shortage impact patients and doctors?
Ms Higgins said the GP shortage will have a "huge impact" on not just the chronically sick and with complex problems, but also the hospital systems.
"That's the big risk. The other is the impact that it's having on our state health systems, which people go when they can't access GP care. It means they're going to present with complications to hospitals," she said.
According to Ms Higgins, part of the issue was down to a shortage of doctors in the pipeline and others retiring.
"We've only got 13.8 per cent of medical students wanting to become GPs. And then on the other side of it, we've got people leaving the profession early or retiring early."
How can it be fixed?
The AMA has called for a series of changes to address the crisis, including an increase in Medicare rebates, the introduction of more programs to attract and retain general practice trainees, and greater funding for after-hours care.
"We need long-term solutions to improve access to GP-led care for patients, including in rural and remote areas that have been hardest hit by workforce shortages. Right now, we need all levels of government to work together with the health sector to resolve the GP workforce issues," Dr Robson said.
"Our report shows the most cost-effective method, with the best outcomes for patients, is GP-led primary care. We want to work together with pharmacists, psychologists, and other allied health as part of a collaborative team for every patient."
The October federal budget included a re-commitment of $250 million per year over three years in GP funding, as well as $143.3 million for rural and remote healthcare, and $229.7 million in general practice support grants to build better infrastructure, but medical groups say it falls significantly short of what is actually needed.
