The charts that show why owning a house is out of reach for so many Australians

As the gaps in growth between wages and property prices widen, the dream of owning a home has increasingly slipped away for Australians on the average wage.

A housing estate with arrows pointing up in the foreground and background of the image.

House prices have risen more than twice as fast as the growth in wages over the past two decades, according to Grattan Institute analysis. Source: SBS News

House prices continue to climb at rates that are unaffordable for many Australians on the average wage.

Prime Minister is no exception, with its value rising from $1.7 million in 2017 to a $4.65 million recorded sale price in 2021.

However, by his admission, Albanese is in a far "more privileged financial position" than most Australians as a recipient of a public salary for close to three decades.

The wage price index, measuring median wage changes over time, has increased by 24 to 30 per cent — depending on where you live — over the past decade, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Meanwhile, some median house prices have grown at two or three times that rate over the same period, depending on where you are in the country.

SBS News has taken a look at the widening gap between wage and property price growth, with experts explaining what's behind the market boom.

How do wages and property prices compare?

Brendan Coates is the housing and economic security director at the Grattan Institute.

He told SBS News that Grattan Institute analysis shows house prices have risen four-fold in the past two decades, more than twice as fast as the .

"House prices have run well ahead of wage growth for decades in Australia. The last decade is no exception," Coates said.

The wage price index has steadily grown over the last decade while property prices, which are typically more volatile, have experienced peaks and troughs during their upward trajectory.
In Victoria, wages have increased by 27 per cent since September 2014, while median house prices outside of Melbourne have risen by 100 per cent over the same period.

In Melbourne, the property boom has been slower, with houses increasing by 61 per cent — from $505,000 to $814,000 — while units rose by 25 per cent.

The wages trend is similar along the east coast. In NSW, they've risen by 26 per cent, while in Queensland, they've increased by 27 per cent over the past decade. However, the regional or metro property price growth varies.
In Brisbane, the median house price has soared by 96 per cent from $451,000 to $885,500 over the past 10 years, while the rest of the state has climbed by 60 per cent.

In NSW, property prices have grown at a similar rate, with prices up 92 per cent in Sydney and 99 per cent in other parts of the state.

On the west coast, property prices have not gone up as much.

In Perth, the average house price has risen 42 per cent — from $530,000 to $750,000. Units across Western Australia have stayed below the state's wage rise of 24 per cent over the same period.

Meanwhile, in the Northern Territory, property prices, both units and houses, have either grown below the territory's wage growth of 25 per cent over the past decade or declined in value.
Cameron Murray, chief economist at the Fresh Economic Thinking website, highlighted that the wage price index does not capture all forms of household incomes, with sources such as investments or welfare payments not included.

However, for 11.8 million Australians aged 15 years or over in August 2023, wages were the primary source of income and continue to be an essential factor in a person's ability to buy their first home.

Why have property prices risen so much?

Proptrack senior economist Paul Ryan said climbing interest rates have led to a period of high growth, following a long period of lowering rates, which meant Australians took out larger loans.

"Interest rates have a big impact on property prices because they have a big influence on how much people can borrow and interest rates move with the economic cycle," he told SBS News.

"The pandemic period was the third fastest period of home price growth in Australia's history."

The cash rate has since soared from a historic low of 0.25 per cent in March 2020 to its .
A graph showing the evolution of interest rates over the last 10 years - depicting a gradual decrease until a sharp increase from 2022 onwards.
Source: SBS News
"We tend to see this process where in good economic times, there's lots of price growth, and that encourages lots of housing construction, which then puts a limit on price growth. But when interest rates are higher, that limits both borrowing capacity and prices," Ryan added.

Coates noted a lack of supply for our growing population, higher demand per person since the pandemic and have all added to housing demand, driving prices up.

Murray said interest rates have driven similar growth rates overseas and take longer to reverse.

"The more interesting part is why prices are still high and quickly reversed. Now the interest rates are higher," he told SBS News.

"These adjustments take a lot longer in the reverse direction ... this is why wages can accelerate quickly but don't fall quickly. That's why asset prices can accelerate and not fall quickly."
A graph showing the increase in the average loan for first-home buyers over the past decade.
Source: SBS News

What are the major parties doing to address the housing crisis?

The housing crisis has forced both major parties to look at solutions that address inadequate supply.

Last week, Opposition leader Peter Dutton promised $5 billion to expedite the construction of 500,000 homes through infrastructure grants and loans.

The election pledge would enable more houses to be built, mostly in new greenfield sites on the urban fringe, by funding infrastructure like sewerage, water and power.
Labor has hit back at criticisms it isn't addressing a similar issue, pointing to its $1.5 billion infrastructure package over the 2023-2025 period

In contrast, its grants are predominantly focused on infill sites which are in built-up urban areas.

It has also offered the states $3 billion in incentives to .

So far the federal government has unveiled $32 billion in housing initiatives, which includes a .

However, other measures, including its plan to help lower-income Australians buy 40,000 homes through its Help-to-Buy scheme, have been .

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6 min read
Published 27 October 2024 2:59pm
By Ewa Staszewska
Source: SBS News



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