If the opinion polls and the political pundits are correct, then Rebekha Sharkie is poised to return to federal parliament as the member for Mayo.
The Centre Alliance candidate is strongly favoured to win Saturday's by-election for the sprawling South Australian electorate, forced by her resignation over the dual citizenship saga.
She looks set to dash the hopes of Georgina Downer, the Liberal candidate, who is seeking to follow in the footsteps of her famous father and former foreign minister Alexander who held the seat for more than 20 years.
After defeating another Liberal, Jamie Briggs, to win Mayo in 2016, Ms Sharkie has worked hard to build up a strong local following, with the perception that, as an independent, she's been better able to focus government and opposition attention on the region.
She's advocated fiercely for new road funding, better health and internet services and for the future health of the River Murray.
She's refused donations from big business or unions and has run her campaign on a very tight budget, her homespun image clearly working in her favour.
The latest opinion poll had her well ahead 59-41 on a two-party basis, though she doesn't believe the seat is safe.
"When you have a cross-bencher in, you instantly create a marginal seat no matter what percentage they hold the seat by," she says.
"You also get somebody who is there entirely for the electorate that's not wedded to party lines."
Not surprisingly, Ms Downer points out the obvious benefits of Mayo being held by the party in government which she describes as a "powerful thing".
"If you have someone from the party of government who is in your seat then you have such an enormous capacity to get those issues that you're concerned about in your electorate heard on the partyroom floor," she says.
Both women agree the campaign has been tough, with Ms Sharkie annoyed and highly critical of Liberal attempts to align her with Labor and the Greens.
Equally, Ms Downer has been forced to contend with suggestions she's a blow-in from Melbourne (where she has lived most recently) and someone entitled to the seat because of her family connections.
She says while most people don't have a problem, they know she's a "Hills girl", but she admits the barrage of criticism from some has been disappointing.
"I've come back home and I love being back home, I love being given this opportunity to put myself up to represent the electorate," she says.
At the end of the day if she loses it won't be for lack of effort, with the 38-year-old crisscrossing the electorate over the past six weeks, often supported by leading coalition figures.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has visited twice, as well as former prime minister John Howard, Julie Bishop, Greg Hunt, Michaelia Cash, Simon Birmingham and Nationals Leader Michael McCormack.
