Questions around Australia’s place in Trump’s America

As President Barack Obama leaves the White House, middle-power nations like Australia are entering uncharted waters.

Trump

Donald Trump poses for a photo in front of the Sydney Opera House, Sept. 21, 2011. Source: AAP

The relationship between Canberra and Washington has traditionally been strong, but promises by US President-elect Donald Trump during last year’s election campaign indicate he is planning a policy overhaul.

Established geo-politics, America's role in the global economy and its participation in foreign conflicts appear to be up for debate, with dramatic changes in US foreign policy potentially causing problems for Canberra.

Professor Bates Gill, an expert on international and Asia-Pacific security from Australian National University, told SBS conflicting statements from Mr Trump have created confusion over what is to come.

"He's not going to take on board policies directly associated with his predecessor,” he said.

“There's real potential for differences of opinion going forward, especially given the importance and long-term friendship that the Australia-US relationship represents."

Mr Trump's career in high office, while only just beginning, is already mired in controversy and confusion, but upon taking the oath at the inauguration, a new kind of America is set to emerge.

Military alliance

Australia's deep ties with the US centre on shared values and defence.

The military alliance was formalised after the World War II with the ANZUS treaty. Since then Australia has sent soldiers to fight alongside US troops in many conflicts including Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

There is also a permanent rotation of US soldiers based in Darwin, an initiative established in 2012 by President Barack Obama in his historic plan for a US pivot to Asia.

Professor Gill said it's impossible to tell what President Trump will do when it comes to old alliances.

"Statements on the international security scene have been literally all over the map. It's not clear if there is (a) consistent line, either from him or among his various senior cabinet-level officials," he said.

On Russia and China

The president-elect has also indicated he intends to re-establish ties with Moscow, saying he might remove sanctions on Russia put in place over their actions in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea.

“It is pretty clear that he is taking all sorts of unusual steps to try and reassure Russia and see what can be done to rebuild that relationship,” Professor Gill said.

Another key factor for Canberra is Mr Trump's stated intention to change the US relationship with China, its most fierce economic competitor and biggest rival in the Asia-Pacific region.

While campaigning, Mr Trump threatened new tariffs on Chinese imports and used some strong language in the process, at one point saying China was “raping” the American economy.

There has been anger in Beijing over Mr Trump's talk of a potential trade war, and accusations of cheating the global economy by manipulating China's currency, the yuan.
There's also speculation a Trump White House could re-evaluate the so-called 'One China' policy. Part of that policy is a refusal to recognise Taiwan as an independent country but, rather, a part of China.

Upon winning the election, Mr Trump took a call from the Taiwanese president, which alarmed mainland China.

According to Linda Jakobson, an expert on Chinese foreign policy who helped establish the China Matters organisation, the One China Policy is at the forefront of Beijing's concerns.

"For Beijing it's of utmost importance, it relates directly to the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. It is the one issue that they have said they would use military force to ensure that reunification remains, even if a very distant goal, but remains a viable option," she said.

For Australia, the relationship between the US and China is crucial. It relies on the US for military support and protection, but relies on China for financial stability as its biggest trading partner.
Linda Jakobsen said any potential problems between the US and China means problems for Australia too.

"The more the United States and China get on with each other, the better it is for Canberra. So if there is tension, or even more than tension, if there was a clash between the two it would not be in Australia's interest," she said.

Expats

Americans living in Australia have been watching the election, and its aftermath, unfold in their homeland from a safe distance.

Christina Barni and Jill Berry are both American-born Australian citizens. They say the reaction from their friends and family back home has been gloomy.

"Actually watching it from here it was really disheartening. I felt like the whole campaign was so negative,” says Jill.

"For the first time in my life I didn't vote for either candidate and neither did my parents. They've never done that, they've always supported either a Republican or a Democrat," says Christina.

For Christina Barni, Jill Berry and other expats, all that's left to do is sit back and watch a new-look White House, and a new-look America.

"It could go really well, or it could go very poorly," says Jill.

"The next four years will definitely be challenging, and definitely interesting to say the least. I hope he makes America great again, but who knows?"

Full coverage of Donald Trump’s inauguration on SBS Saturday from 3:30am.

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5 min read
Published 20 January 2017 8:24pm
Updated 20 January 2017 8:32pm
By Kristina Zarich

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