Key Points
- The Russia-Ukraine war will result in ongoing high food prices and push millions more people into poverty around the world if it is not resolved soon, an Australian food security expert has warned.
- An end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the only solution to the looming global food security crisis, Professor Kadambot Siddique says.
The war in Ukraine will result in ongoing high food prices and push millions more people into poverty around the world if it is not resolved soon, an Australian food security expert has warned.
Professor Kadambot Siddique, an internationally renowned researcher and director of the University of Western Australia’s Institute for Agriculture, told SBS News the outlook for global security was “looking bleak” following both the COVID-19 pandemic, and now the conflict in Europe.
“We're going to see the price of products remain high for 2022, 2023 and even up until 2024,” he said.
“The first and most important thing is that we must stop this war, the conflict. The world leaders should find a solution as soon as possible.”
Earlier this week, European Council President Charles Michel accused Russia of being “solely responsible for this looming food crisis” by using food supplies as “a stealth missile against developing countries".
This wheat warehouse in the village of Kopyliv, about 45 km from the Ukraine capital Kyiv, has been badly damaged in the conflict. Source: Anadolu / Anadolu Agency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
“This is driving up food prices, pushing people into poverty, and destabilising entire regions,” Mr Michel said.
In a recent television interview, Russian president Vladimir Putin accused the West of "bluster" by claiming Moscow was preventing grain exports from Ukraine.
"There is no problem to export grain from Ukraine," he said, suggesting several possible routes.
Professor Siddique agreed with Mr Michel, saying the war would “not only lead to death, malnutrition, hunger” but also to “conflict in various other parts of the world”.
UWA Professor Kadambot Siddique. Credit: UWA
Professor Siddique said an end to the war in Ukraine is the only solution to the looming global food security crisis.
"The global community in the national forum has to pressure both countries, particularly Russia, to stop this," he said.
Why the Ukraine-Russia war is leaving millions hungry around the world
Forecasts published by in April found the number of people living in extreme poverty in 2022 is expected to be between 657 million and 676 million, with COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict among the factors to blame.
“Our projections prior to the start of the pandemic totaled 581 million poor people in 2022,” World Bank researchers wrote.
“This means that the COVID-19 crisis, growing inflationary pressures, and the Ukraine conflict will lead to an additional 75 million to 95 million people in poverty this year, compared to pre-pandemic projections.”
Ukraine and Russia are major producers of grains, including wheat and barley, as well as sunflower oil - a key cooking ingredient in many countries.
“About one-third of the (world's) wheat and barley is produced from Ukraine and Russia, and the war has really affected the farmers and agricultural operation in Ukraine, but also to some extent in Russia,” Professor Siddique said.
Yemenis displaced by the conflict that country receive food aid and supplies at a camp in the Yemeni district of Hays. Food prices have doubled since last year and the fact that Ukraine supplies nearly a third of Yemen's wheat imports has heightened fears of a deepening famine. Source: AFP / KHALED ZIAD/AFP via Getty Images
Before the war, Ukraine supplied food for nearly 400 million people around the world, Professor Siddique said, but the conflict has “completely disrupted” the shipping of products from both Ukraine and Russia.
Russia and Belarus are also major producers of key fertilisers, and the disruption to these supplies has led to “escalating the price of inputs” for farmers, leading to price hikes for consumers around the world, he said.
‘Food disadvantage’ on the rise in Australia
Despite a “bumper” wheat crop in 2021, a number of local and international factors, including climate change, COVID-19 supply and logistics issues, and now the Ukraine conflict, have pushed food prices up in Australia, Professor Siddique said.
“We had a lack of labourers, particularly seasonal labourers to pick the fruits and vegetables, and we also had significant natural or climate-related issues, floods in eastern Australia, and heat waves and drought etc,” he said.
Australia is a net exporter of food - meaning the nation produces “sufficient food” to feed its 25 million people while also feeding approximately 40 to 60 million people outside Australia, Professor Siddique explained.
However, the Ukraine conflict “will affect Australia, because Australia imports a lot of fertilisers” and other chemicals used in farming such as herbicides and fungicides, he said.
“In general, we are seeing significant price hikes all over the world, including in Australia, and particularly for fresh fruits, vegetables, and so on,” Professor Siddique said.
In addition to ending the war in Ukraine, combating climate change is key to managing food prices in the future, he added.
Dr Kimberley Reis, a researcher in local food contingency planning at Griffith University, said “food disadvantage” was rising in Australia, fuelled in part by the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow has referred to as a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine.
“Additionally, our wages in Australia are not keeping up with the real cost of living,” Dr Reis said.
“All these factors intersect to result in higher product prices but are also exacerbated for many by the increasing casualisation of the Australian workforce, and hence the rising experience of food disadvantage in Australia.”
Recent floods have also magnified the issue, adversely affecting agricultural areas including south-east Queensland's Lockyer Valley - “the eastern seaboard’s ‘salad bowl’" - which is also driving prices up for foods including lettuce.
‘An issue of national security and food security’: Fertiliser shortage could hurt Australia
The war in Ukraine and the ongoing pandemic have critically hit global supplies of phosphorous, an essential resource in producing food, which can affect Australia's ability to feed its citizens, a new study has found.
The Our Phosphorus Future report, with contributions from 40 scientists, warns the decisions of a handful of phosphate-producing countries including China and Russia can have far-reaching consequences.
Phosphorus is extracted from non-renewable phosphate rock reserves for use in crop fertilisers, livestock feeds and food additives.
Global phosphate (phosphorous fertiliser) prices have spiked 400 per cent since early 2020 due to supply chain disruptions, export bans and sanctions.
With Australia being one of the world's top phosphate importers for food production, the repercussions will be felt soon according to UTS scientist Dana Cordell, a lead author of the report.
Two-thirds of the country's phosphorus use is for livestock production.
"Phosphorus needs to be on the national agenda. It is an issue of national security and food security," Dr Cordell said.
"There are so many actions we can, and need, to take now to ensure access to sustainable phosphorus sources to grow our food from investing in local renewable fertiliser markets ... to eating more plant-based diets with a lower carbon and phosphorus footprint".
She also noted how pollution is an unfortunate by-product of phosphate production that could threaten Australian ecosystems.
"Vast amounts of phosphorus and other nutrients are ending up in our waterways, with potentially toxic effects, from the Great Barrier Reef to the Hawkesbury-Nepean rivers".
"The benefits of investing in sustainable phosphorus strategies will be enormous to our farmers, our economy and our environment. But the cost of inaction will be devastating," she said.
With AAP and AFP
