New South Wales has reported 1,281 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases and five more deaths, as the government releases modelling indicating a likely peak in infections "in the next week or so".
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the modelling from the projects the highest number of intensive care beds will be needed around early to mid October.
"Therefore a likely peak in the intensive care beds required [will be] around early to mid October. So that is what the best modelling tells us at this stage," she told reporters on Monday.
"I do want to qualify that by saying that a number of variables are associated with that modelling."
Within the western and south-western Sydney Local Government Areas (LGAs) of concern, cases number are expected to increase until mid September, with between 1,100 to 2,000 infections per day.
Intensive care demand and capacity modelling from the Burnet Institute. Source: NSW Health
It is then predicted sufficient vaccine immunity will reduce the number of infections. This is despite the region being unlikely to reach the 70 per cent double dose mark until weeks later.
The modelling also shows a peak in hospitalisations in mid October, with about 560 COVID-19 patients in intensive care.
This is a surge Ms Berejiklian is confident the state's hospital system can cope with. She said it has a surge capacity of 1,550 ICU beds, lower than the previously-announced capacity of 2,000 beds.
The Burnet Institute anticipates between 2,200 and 3,900 people will require hospitalisation. Source: NSW Health
"At any given time in our hospital system, they would be around 400 people with non-COVID related issues in ICU and our surge capacity, including staff, in our intensive care units is 1,550," she said.
"We certainly don't want to have to use of all those beds and staff, because we know what pressure it will put on the system, but we want everybody to be reassured that the capacity is there."
Nepean Hospital intensive care specialist Dr Nhi Nguyen added that hospitals have been preparing for this since March last year.
"We ask our colleagues in each of the hospitals to identify areas where they could set up in intensive care if needed. We asked them to identify staff who they could train and who they could bring in," she said.
"[Now] when you hear stories of patients needing to be diverted elsewhere... that is actually a sign that system is working.
"Intensive care patients being transferred across the city, or down to Wollongong, or across to the North Shore. These are all signs that the system is working, and we are all here to help each other."
The five deaths recorded in the 24 hours to 8pm include a man in his 90s who was a resident of St George Aged Care Facility in Bexley and acquired his infection there. He died at St George Hospital.
Dr Nhi Nguyen speaks during a press conference in Sydney. Source: AAP
A woman in her 80s from northern Sydney died at Ryde Hospital, while two women died at Westmead Hospital - one in her 50s and the other in her 80s. A man in his 60s from the Southern Highlands died at home.
The tiny community of Enngonia in north-west NSW is also mourning the death of an Elder who died in Dubbo Hospital after contracting the virus.
Her death was , and will likely be included in Tuesday's numbers.
NSW Health says there are now 1,071 people admitted to hospital, with 177 in intensive care, 67 of whom require ventilation.
The new cases in the 24 hours to 8pm on Sunday came from over 136,400 tests.
Of them, 831 were in Sydney's west and south west, 44 in the Western Local Health District and seven in the Far Western Local Health District, including one in the small town of Wilcannia.
In the past 24 hours, 31,903 people came forward for a vaccination, taking the state's total to 7,543,522.
More than 40 per cent of the NSW population aged over 16 is double vaccinated.
Meanwhile, thousands of essential workers in Sydney's 12 local government area COVID-19 hotspots have been given a two-week extension on an order to get their first COVID-19 jab if they want to work outside those areas.
The government has given workers another fortnight to get their first vaccine dose but they have to book a vaccination appointment by Wednesday.
With AAP.
SBS is providing live translations of daily New South Wales and Victoria COVID-19 press conferences in various languages.
