Urgent action can still prevent many of the catastrophic impacts caused by climate change, but some consequences have now become inevitable, a major new report has warned.
The report, from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), shows significant progress in the scientific consensus around global warming.
"There's not only improved information and evidence, but in the time since the last report there's been very significant climate changes in their own right," said ANU professor Mark Howden, who is the vice-chair of the IPCC's working group.
"We've seen record after record temperatures broken across the globe, and we've seen extreme events after extreme events."
Severe flooding, such as that seen recently in the NSW town of Lismore, will also become more common. Source: AAP / JASON O’BRIEN/AAPIMAGE
The report singles out a number of climate threats currently faced by Australia, including the loss of coral reefs, disruption and decline in agricultural production, and more people dying due to heatwaves.
"We're also seeing what we call cascading and compounding impacts where we see, for example in the fires in the black summer in Australia, followed by floods and followed by other extreme events," said report co-author Kathryn Bowen from ANU.
The report found Australia will become increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as droughts, cyclones and flooding.
Flooding disasters are currently unfolding in southeast Queensland and the northern NSW town of Lismore.
The former commissioner of the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service, Lee Johnson, said the frequency of damaging flooding events appeared to be accelerating.
"Unfortunately, these kinds of extreme weather events are becoming more common and will get more severe due to climate change," he said.
The IPCC report again stresses the need to limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Based on short-term goals agreed at the recent Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow, global temperature increases are forecast to exceed 2.4 degrees by 2100.
Drastic action to scale back emissions won't completely eliminate the forecast impacts of climate change - but could still limit the severity of global warming, according to the IPCC report.
"Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5 degrees Celsius would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems... but cannot eliminate them all."
Climate inequality
The IPCC's last report, in August last year, found that global warming could hit 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2030 - a decade earlier than projected.
That same report observed that changes in the Earth’s climate have been observed in every region across the world, and that human activities were "unequivocally" causing the planet to warm.
Macquarie University associate professor Rawshan Begum said developing countries were too often left to bear the brunt of climate change.
"The IPCC report recognises that poor and least-developed countries are most affected due to climate change, and they are least responsible for its causes," she said.
"These countries receive relatively little financial support for adaptation. International climate financing needs more attention to adaptation investment for managing climate risks and impacts in these developed and developing countries."
One of these countries is Kiribati, a low-lying chain of atolls in the Pacific that could be completely swamped by rising seas.
Former Kiribati president Anote Tong said his country was paying the price for the "world's addiction to fossil fuels".
"I see Kiribati people build sea walls out of coral because they have nothing else available. I have watched houses swept away by the sea with no replacement available.
"It is imperative that polluting countries like Australia significantly increase financial assistance to help us adapt to the impacts of climate change."
Preparing for a warmer planet
One of the key areas of the IPCC report is adaptation - preparing for the inevitable effects of climate change, and putting plans in place to mitigate them.
"Growing public and political awareness of climate impacts and risks has resulted in at least 170 countries and many cities including adaptation in their climate policies and planning processes," the report reads.
Former Kiribati president Anote Tong says developing countries are paying for the actions of richer nations.
IPCC chair Professor Hoesung Lee said the world was at a delicate crossroads.
"The report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction," he said.
"It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our well-being and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks."
