KEY POINTS
- It's now been 365 days since Russia launched it's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Thousands have died, cities have been devastated, and millions are displaced.
- Experts are divided over whether we will see a ceasefire in 2023.
One year ago, the Russia-Ukraine war took a dramatic turn.
Having first started in 2014 when Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a major escalation of the conflict on 24 February 2022.
It was Ukraine, a justification Kyiv and the West rubbished.
It came against the backdrop of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's desire to join , which would have put another member of the military alliance on Russia's doorstep.
Destroyed buildings in Borodyanka, north of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Wednesday. Source: AAP, AP / Thibault Camus
Those in Russia have also felt the impact. Wide-ranging sanctions mean they are now living in a country ostracised by much of the Western world, and citizens have faced further restrictions on civil liberties.
The invasion's toll
More than 8,000 Ukraine civilians have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the United Nations' human rights office said on Monday, although it warned that figure was likely to be only the "tip of the iceberg".
The number of troops that have died is also difficult to ascertain. In November, top United States general Mark Milley estimated that 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or injured. More recently, the United Kingdom's Defence Ministry said the figure was "likely" to be 200,000 on the Russian side.
The conflict has also uprooted the lives of millions in Ukraine. The United Nations Refugee Agency estimates that 5.9 million people are internally displaced, while nearly 8 million people have fled to neighbouring countries. .
Displacement has not been apparent in Russia. But still, people have left, although it is hard to get an exact figure.
Media reports suggest that hundreds of thousands of people have exited amid the Russian government's moves to restrict civil liberties even further. The country's independent media, and its citizens face prosecution .
In October, some local outlets reported that 700,000 people had left — a figure the Kremlin was quick to reject.
Police officers detain a demonstrator during a protest against Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Moscow on 24 February, 2022. Source: Getty, AFP / Alexander Nemenov
Who's aiding who in the Russia-Ukraine war?
Many Western nations have thrown their support behind Ukraine.
US aid tops US$112 billion ($164 billion) and that figure is likely to grow, with President Joe Biden saying this week that the US "will remain with Ukraine as long as it takes".
The country is the largest provider of military aid, which has come in the form of, among other things, munitions, air defence systems, and armoured vehicles.
The UK provided £2.3 billion ($4 billion) in military assistance last year, and has pledged to match that in 2023. It is also running Operation Interflex, a program to train Ukrainian troops that Australia has joined.
Since January, about 70 Australian infantry have been in the UK training the Ukrainian recruits, many of whom lack any background in combat.
The sessions have focused on basic first aid and how to secure the villages and cities where much of the conflict is taking place.
To date, Australia has provided Ukraine with $655 million in support, including $475 million in e.
The US in December raised concerns about a deepening defence partnership between Iran and Russia. It came after Iran in November that , but insisted they were supplied before the invasion.
But Reuters reported in October that two senior Iranian officials and two Iranian diplomats had told the news agency that Iran had promised to provide Russia with surface-to-surface missiles as well as more drones.
Russia's war effort has also been supported by mercenaries from the , although tensions between the Defence Ministry and the private military company were on show this week when founder Yevgeny Prigozhin accused it of depriving his fighters of munitions in a bid to destroy his firm.
Then there is China, which US believes may be providing Russia with nonlethal military assistance, such as body armour or military uniforms.
Beijing has not outright rejected these claims, with foreign ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, saying on Monday that China "stands on the side of peace and dialogue" and that it was "The US, not China that has been pouring weapons into the battlefield".
Could a ceasefire be on the horizon?
There are no exact figures on how much the war is costing Russia, but an analysis by financial magazine Forbes Ukraine, published in November last year, put the figure as US$82 billion ($120 billion) for the first nine months. It found that was about a quarter of the US$340 billion ($498 billion) Russia brought in through revenue in 2021.
Western nations have slapped sanctions on Russia in a bid to stifle its economy since the invasion began, targeting individuals, banks, imports and exports, and more.
In Ukraine, direct damage costs were estimated to be US$100 billion ($146 billion), by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, and the European Commission. The cost of rebuilding and decontamination was estimated to be US$350 billion ($512 billion).
The "huge" mounting costs on both sides are why Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in International Studies at Flinders University, believes a "minimal scenario" like a ceasefire could occur towards the end of the year.
"[The huge costs] won't enable both sides to continue fighting at this pace forever," Dr Genauer said.
The abandoned international airport in the Ukranian city of Kherson in February, 2023. Source: Getty / Scott Peterson
But Mr Zelenskyy has maintained that his forces will not stop fighting until all Russia's forces are expelled, including in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine collapsed last year, and Dr Genauer doesn't believe we'll see them restart because there is no trust between the two parties.
"What I think we're more likely to see... [is a] negotiated agreement, but I think we're only likely to see that take place once it becomes very clear that there's sort of sufficient military victory for one side vis-à-vis sufficient military failures for the other," she said.
Matthew Sussex is an associate professor at the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.
He said so long as both sides have the people, equipment, and incentives to fight, it's unlikely there will be a ceasefire.
"If you're Ukraine, you're fighting for national survival and that's not going to change. If you're Vladimir Putin, you're fighting for your political skin."
"I think the conflict will continue until there is a major sea change. That could be that the Ukrainian economy or army collapses, or if the Russian forces suffer huge setbacks, or Putin is removed."
Overnight, the United Nations General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution that calls for Russia to end hostilities and withdraw from Ukraine.
The General Assembly has become the most important UN body dealing with Ukraine because the Security Council, which is charged with maintaining international peace and security, is paralysed by Russia's veto power.
Its resolutions are not legally binding, unlike Security Council resolutions, but serve as a barometer of world opinion.
Concern over nuclear weapons, and China
Over the course of the invasion, Mr Putin has hinted Russia could use a nuclear weapon if threatened.
After announcing the suspension of a bilateral nuclear arms control treaty with the US during a key speech on Tuesday, Mr Putin on Thursday said Russia would "pay increased attention" to strengthening its nuclear forces.
Associate Professor Sussex said nuclear weapon use was unlikely because it would spark significant international outrage, and get China offside.
Beijing's top diplomat, Wang Yi, met with Mr Putin at the Kremlin on Wednesday, with the Russian president later signalling that Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit his country.
It came after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday said there would be "consequences" China was considering providing lethal support to Russia, something Beijing has denied doing.
Both Dr Genauer and Associate Professor Sussex believe China is unlikely to provide this kind of aid to Russia.
"I would expect that China will try to continue to walk the line of saying that they are more or less a neutral and balanced actor, whilst maintaining very good... ties with Russia, but not going so far as to fully throw themselves behind Russia in terms of providing weapons," Dr Genauer said.
- With AAP.
