A private member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage, to be introduced by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and Deputy Tanya Plibersek, will need a total of 76 votes to pass.
Advocacy organisation Australian Marriage Equality (AME) believes the bill has a near majority in the lower house, with at least 72 votes.
SBS has independently confirmed 60 votes, with an additional two believed to be in favour. These have been calculated on the basis that the Coalition will be granted a free vote, otherwise the bill is doomed to fail under its 89 vote majority.
Some politicians contacted by SBS have been unwilling to declare their position publicly.
AME has also stated that a majority of Senators will vote in favour of marriage equality if granted a free vote, citing 39 votes in support.
SBS has independently confirmed 33 votes across Labor, the Coalition and the cross bench.
The bill follows a failed private members bill put forward by Labor backbencher Stephen Jones in 2012, that was voted down in the House of Representatives, 98-42.
Labor’s push to legalise gay marriage coincides with ongoing efforts by the Greens and Liberal Democrat Senator David Leyonhjelm.
The Greens have called for a cross party meeting to be held on June 1 to discuss strategies that will ensure marriage equality is secured for all Australians.
Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said cooperation was the only way to guarantee success.
“It’s wonderful to see MPs from all sides pushing for marriage equality,” she said.
“But what we need now is the votes to make reform happen. Love and equality should be above politics.”
Senator Leyonhjelm has also voiced concerns over Labor’s bill, saying the move may be more about legacy than equality.
“There is somebody who is going to say ‘I brought same-sex marriage to Australia’,” he said.
“I don’t think it’s irresponsible… The momentum for change is irresistible and they’re just hitching themselves to the wagon.”
The figures quoted in this article are being updated as SBS confirms individual positions within parliament.
