Australian mortgage holders can rest easy heading into the first cash rate call of the year following convincing progress on inflation.
Yet even with softer set of consumer price data - including the smallest quarterly increase in almost two years - most economists say interest rate cuts are still a while away.
Based on the official measure of inflation from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer price growth moderated a little more than expected to 4.1 per cent, down from 5.4 per cent at the last quarterly update in September.
Viewed quarterly, inflation weakened from 1.2 per cent in the three months to September to 0.6 per cent.
The main contributors to the December quarter increase were housing (rising one per cent), alcohol and tobacco (rising 2.8 per cent), insurance and financial services (rising 1.7 per cent), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (rising 0.5 per cent).
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the rate of inflation was well down from its peak of 7.8 per cent a year ago.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the rate of inflation was well down from its peak a year ago. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas
Forecasters expected a convincing slowdown in December but the result was even softer, with a 4.3 per cent annual increase in the headline result pencilled in and 0.8 per cent on a quarterly basis.
Jarden chief economist Carlos Cacho said the Reserve Bank would be pleased to see headline and trimmed mean numbers materially below their own forecasts.
"They were expecting that year-end inflation for December was going to come in at 4.5 per cent for both headline and trimmed mean ... instead we've got 4.1 and 4.2," Cacho told ABC TV.
Forecasters were primed for a soft result but the official reading came in even weaker than the 4.3 per cent annual increase pencilled in, and 0.8 per cent on a quarterly basis.
The trimmed mean, a key measure of underlying inflation that cuts away irregular or temporary price changes, sunk to 4.2 per cent, down from 5.1 per cent in the September quarter.
The inflation figures will set the scene for the year's first cash rate meeting on Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank has been lifting interest in a bid to bring inflation back within its two-three per cent target range.
With the key inflation numbers coming in below the RBA's own forecasts, most economists say the chances of a rate hike at the February meeting are slim.
EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy said the central bank had no reason to lift interest next week but recommended patience for borrowers expecting cuts.
She said cuts this year could be premature as risks were likely to persist into 2024.
"Inflationary pressures are still present - including continued strong demand for housing, rising insurance premiums and a tight labour market."
