Key Points
- The international order could be shaken up in 2024, with billions of people set to vote in major elections worldwide.
- Key elections to watch include the US, India, Russia, the UK and Taiwan.
- Mexico could elect a woman as president for the first time.
2024 is set to be a milestone year for elections, with more than two billion people expected to head to the polls worldwide.
The United States presidential election in November will be closely watched for the possible return of Donald Trump, while Russia's Vladimir Putin eyes another six years in the job.
The EU's parliamentary elections will shape how key issues like migration are handled moving forward, particularly with the rise of right-wing populism.
All these factors have made some experts wary about what's to come.
Emma Shortis, senior researcher in international and security affairs at the Australia Institute, says she's "really nervous".
"It's a huge year for democracy and quite a frightening one, to be honest," she told SBS News.
Associate professor Matthew Sussex, a research fellow at the ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, suggested the overall prospects are "dicey".
Andrew Walter, a professor of international relations at the University of Melbourne, echoed their thoughts.
"Where do I see democracy heading? Not to a very good place, to be short," Walter said.
With some 30 countries voting in a leader in 2024, here are some key elections to watch.
Will Trump be back in the White House?
All three experts agreed that the most consequential election of 2024 will be in the US in November.
Donald Trump, despite having multiple against him and being , remains the frontrunner for the Republican Party and the key opponent for the Democrats' Joe Biden.
Shortis said there is plenty of "hand-wringing" about what a potential second Trump administration could mean internationally, such as withdrawing from NATO, but that "the dangers are bigger" when dealing with a candidate who is threatening to close borders and "is so easily provoked".
"When you have the leading candidate of the Republican nomination who's talking about being a dictator on day one and using openly and brazenly fascist language, that’s deeply concerning," Shortis said.
Sussex said what happens in the United States will send "deep ripples" across the international community, and that if Trump wins, regular checks and balances in US democracy may not be as effective as they were the first time around.
"If that's the case then it will certainly spur anti-democratic forces in Europe," he said.
Trump has been vocal about his distaste for the funding the US is providing Ukraine, vowing to end aid to the embattled country if re-elected.
"That would have enormous consequences for America's role in the world, for NATO solidarity, for relations with and within the EU," Walter said.
"I think it would be the worst news for democracy at the end of the year if Trump were re-elected."
Putin to run again
Vladimir Putin is by another six years in Russia's March elections, a move almost assured after years of cracking down on any political opposition.
"Putin's not going anywhere," Shortis said.
Sussex sees Putin's continued rule as a mix of good and bad.
"It’s a good thing, because realistically, there is no alternative to Vladimir Putin," he said.
“That means if he drops off a perch or has an unfortunate fall out of a window, then the person who replaces him is likely to struggle to unite the different Kremlin clans, which Putin has managed to rule over, and is probably more likely to be even more authoritarian than Putin himself. So that's an element of stability."
However, Sussex said Putin's re-election would mean Russia would continue respecting "virtually none of" the international law and norms.
"He's not above using things like sabotage to achieve his aims," he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Source: AAP
India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party are seeking a third term in 2024. Nearly one billion Indians will head to the polls as part of an election campaign held between April and May.
Walter said that election is one he would put in the "worrying" category.
"Not so much that the election will be rigged, but that the process will be highly biased in the incumbent’s favour," he explained.
"[Modi] is seen as quite effective in many ways but is also continuing to promote a Hindu nationalist agenda, undermining or eroding democratic institutions and checks and balances that have been in place since India’s independence."
European Parliament
The European Parliament election will be held in June, with more than 400 million people eligible to vote.
Polls indicate that far-right parties will make substantial gains, which is likely to impact the EU's policy stance on major issues like immigration, climate change and the bloc’s expansion.
Countries including Georgia, Croatia, Belarus, Portugal, Belgium and Belarus are all slated for parliamentary elections, while Finland, Iceland, Slovakia and Lithuania will head to the polls to elect their next presidents.
"I think the political landscape is potentially shifting quite dramatically," Shortis said of Europe. "The far-right in particular can be quite successful in European parliamentary elections and that can be an indication of where the far-right sits in the nations of Europe as well."
Geert Wilder’s anti-Islam and anti-EU PVV Freedom Party, while Italy's far-right Brothers of Italy, under Giorgia Meloni, .
"Populism is certainly far from being dead and buried in Europe," Walter said.
However, Poland's parliament elected former European Council president Donald Tusk as prime minister in December, unseating the eight-year rule of the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
"I think it will be really important to watch how the left does in Europe, particularly given the huge contestation in Europe over Gaza and support for Israel and countries like Germany," Shortis said.
Could the UK elect a Labour government?
Perhaps the most significant election in Europe in 2024 will be that of the UK, where the Conservative Party has been in power for almost 14 years.
Despite strong forecasting for the Labour Party, Sussex said the Conservatives should not be discounted as they are a "known quantity".
While Sussex says he thinks that Labour will win, it's uncertain whether they will be able to roll back some of the "really nasty things" the Conservatives have done, citing recent immigration policy changes.
There is also the question of the economy.
"Post-Brexit, that is something that they’re going to struggle with, no matter who wins the election," Sussex said.
Mexico's first woman president?
Two women are on the ballot for June's presidential election in Mexico, former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez.
Sheinbaum is running on behalf of the Morena party, which outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador belonged to, while Gálvez is representing an opposition coalition called the Broad Front for Mexico.
This election could mark the first time in its history that a woman is president in Mexico, a turning point for a country grappling with gender-based violence and femicide.
In 2022 alone, a total of 3,754 women and girls were killed in Mexico, according to the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System.
Taiwan
Having played a big role in the US and Australia's foreign policy regarding China, Taiwan will be holding its presidential and parliamentary elections in early January.
Taiwan has been governed independently of China since 1949, but Beijing's "One China Principle" insists Taiwan is a part of China and will be reunified with the mainland one day under the Chinese Communist Party.
Walter said the election is in the same category as the United States in terms of possible impact.
"[It's] going to be politically highly consequential for particularly US relations with China and whether a Taiwan crisis could blow up over the next couple of years," he said.
China has accused the front-running presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, of being "separatist".
The opposition party Kuomintang, however, is considered much friendlier towards Beijing.
Walter said it's unknown whether "it would be better for the world" if Taiwan had a more pro-China party in power, something he said could lead to "miscalculations" on both sides.
Shortis said the real test will be how the US assumes China will react as the result of that election.
"The potential for miscalculation and misunderstanding of Chinese intentions is enormous," she said. "I think it's really important to take a breath … and for the US and Australia to continue the diplomatic engagement they've been pursuing."
- With additional reporting by Reuters and AFP
