At this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, five key points are expected to come to the fore mainly due to the US election result.
Obama's farewell tour
President Barack Obama is taking the long way to Lima this week.
Firstly via Athens, to give a speech about democracy in its birthplace, and then to Berlin, to say thank you to Chancellor Angela Merkel, the woman he described as probably his closest international partner during his eight year presidency.
The European leg is all about expressing solidarity with America’s longstanding allies and its commitment to decades of security cooperation through NATO.
But when he does touch down in Peru, the conversations with the leaders of Asian nations will get harder for several reasons, but one in particular.
A man named Donald
He won’t be there, but each of the 20 other world leaders will be talking about Donald Trump - President-elect of the United States, who has upended the bipartisan orthodoxy of the last few decades that says the only thing better than free trade is more free trade.
This being a forum dedicated to that very thing, it’s no wonder leaders are nervous.
No one really knows what Mr Trump will do in office on trade, or anything, but we do have his campaign vision, which vows to “negotiate fair trade deals that create American jobs, increase American wages, and reduce America's trade deficit”"
One of his seven points to achieve this goal is to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.
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Goodbye TPP, hello RCEP?
The TPP is a dead duck, now that even President Obama has conceded there is little point trying to push it through the so-called lame duck session of congress (between now and Trump’s inauguration on January 21).
A lot of countries spent a lot of time and even more political capital selling this deal to increasingly skeptical voters, including Japan which pushed it through an acrimonious parliamentary debate last week.
That effort now looks to have been for nothing, and President Obama will be asked to explain why not even he could sell its benefits to American lawmakers.
The TPP was not only about creating a 12-nation free trade zone covering nearly 40 per cent of the global economy.
It was also about Obama’s bigger picture: the ‘pivot to Asia’ designed to deepen security and diplomatic ties, partly as a balance to China’s growing regional influence.
China was not invited to join the TPP, and President Xi is seizing APEC as an opportunity to promote the rival RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), which Obama administration officials argue offers lower standards and fewer protections.
If the US under President Trump does step back from this space, China is ready - positioning itself for an early regional win.
Australia is staying out of the geo-politics of this one, pursuing both for economic gains.
Turnbull's to do list
Mr Turnbull never misses a chance to promote the three big Asian free trade deals signed by the coalition government and he is an unabashed believer in the benefits of trade liberalisation.
But, he and his cabinet acknowledge it is becoming a harder sell.
Australia, with its small population, needs access to big markets, but the flip side is how to make sure these deals don’t sell out the type of blue collar workers who flipped to Trump.
Sources familiar with the PM’s APEC agenda think the Trump factor will mostly come up in corridor chats, and that there is a firm view that Australia is dealing with the Obama administration at this gathering.
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That's good for Mr Turnbull, who is seeking one last face-to-face with President Obama to ensure the deal they have been working on since January, for the US to take 1600 asylum seekers in Australian immigration detention on Manus Island and Nauru, is not scuttled by the Trump administration.
On the sidelines, Mr Turnbull is also expected to have his first meeting with the so-called Trump of the east, Philippines President Rodrigo Duturte.
Any time the US, Russia and China are in the same room
Talks are expected to turn to the bigger security flash points, including the Syrian conflict.
APEC obviously is not a security forum, but that is what the sideline meetings are for.
President Obama is expected to meet President Xi and there are early reports of one last meeting with Russian President Putin, who has expressed admiration for Donald Trump and who Obama has had particularly tense relations with.
For Mr Turnbull, the message since the election has been one of ‘business as usual’ with the US, that no matter who is in the Lodge or the White House, Australia’s national interests are aligned with America’s.
But the US has just elected a man who is promising anything but business as usual.
And instead of a valedictory tour, Mr Obama’s final showing on the world stage will be trying to protect a hard-earned Asia-Pacific legacy that could be about to be torn up.
