As the campaign toward the Netherlands' March 15 election kicks-off today, two polls have shown a slump in support for anti-Islam leader Geert Wilders - though his Freedom Party still retains a narrow lead.
A poll by shows Wilders is expected to net 27 seats, down from 35 seats two weeks ago.
Another poll by predicts the party is expected to net 26 seats, down from 31 seats two weeks ago.
Prime Minister Mark Rutte's centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy is currently polling in second place with between 23 and 24 seats.
Seventy-six seats are required to form government in the 150-seat parliament, meaning a coalition of four or five parties is all but inevitable.
Most major party leaders, including Mr Rutte, have vowed not to join any coalition agreement which includes Wilders' Freedom Party.
But with Wilders expected to net the most seats, excluding his party from government will require complex, protracted political maneuvering.
The Dutch election will be the first in what's been branded a 'super election year' for Europe, with polls to be held in France and Germany in the following months.
Far-right parties in all three countries have seen a surge in popularity as major parties suffer a decline.
Minority parties such as the Green Left and 50 Plus - a party for senior citizens - have also seen increasing support.
Wilders - a Eurosceptic, anti-immigration, Trump supporter - has dubbed the March 15 parliamentary election the start of a "Patriotic Spring".
In December, Wilders was convicted of inciting discrimination against Moroccans for leading a chant of "Fewer! Fewer! Fewer!" at a 2014 election rally.
The European Union, migration, Islam, economic equality and healthcare costs are expected to be major issues in the coming weeks.
Geert Wilders with French far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Source: AP Photo/Michael Probst
A poll by Motivaction on Tuesday showed more than 61 per cent of respondents see Dutch politicians as "elitist, unreliable and dishonest."
While Wilders is still in the lead, pollsters say the recent drop in support is a result of a range of factors.
Those include his support for US President Donald Trump, skepticism over his ability to implement policy, and questions over the value of protest votes.
Unlike President Trump's win and the Brexit vote, it will not be a shock if Wilders and his Party for Freedom wins - he has led in opinion polls for most of the past two years.
His main rival, Prime Minister Rutte, is banking on a strengthening economic recovery to restore popularity lost during the austerity years of 2012 to 2014.
There are 31 parties competing for votes, with 14 likely to win at least one seat - the next three largest parties command no more than 10 or 11 percent of the vote.
The multitude of parties has led to major arguments about who is and isn't appropriate to include in televised debates.
If Wilders' Freedom Party finishes first but is unable to form a government, Rutte will be left trying to forge a centrist coalition with several parties that share little more than opposition to Wilders.
In that case "we will stay put and manage the country until there is a new coalition," Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Tuesday.
"That could even last for up to four years," he said.
- With Reuters
