Key Points
- Unsubstantiated reports suggesting a military coup against Chinese President Xi Jinping have spread in recent days.
- It comes ahead of a key political meeting of China's Communist Party next month.
Rumours have been swirling online in recent days of activity in China, with unsubstantiated reports suggesting a military coup against President Xi Jinping.
Over the weekend, several Twitter accounts with thousands of followers shared unconfirmed rumours the president was under house arrest after being removed as the head of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).
This has not been confirmed by any official source or state media.
Evidence cited online included footage allegedly showing a convoy of military vehicles, reportedly up to 80 kilometres long, heading into Beijing, with reports of mass flight cancellations adding to speculation.
So, what do we actually know for sure?
The claims and who's making them
Rumours started appearing on social media following Mr Xi's recent appearance at a meeting of the eight-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
On 24 September, Indian politician Subramanian Swamy tweeted to his millions of followers: "New rumour to be checked out: Is Xi Jingping under house arrest in Beijing?
"When Xi was in Samarkand recently, the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party were supposed to have removed Xi from the Party’s in-charge of Army. Then house arrest followed. So goes the rumour."
Jennifer Zeng, a Chinese human rights activist with over 206,000 Twitter followers, posted a video which she claimed showed an 80-kilometre-long convoy of PLA military vehicles heading to Beijing.
"Meanwhile, rumour has it that #XiJingping was under house arrest after #CCP seniors removed him as head of PLA," she wrote on Twitter.
The video was widely shared on social media, including by Gordon Chang, author of a book titled 'The Coming Collapse of China'.
"This video of military vehicles moving to Beijing comes immediately after the grounding of 59 per cent of the flights in the country and the jailings of senior officials," he wrote on Twitter.
"There's a lot of smoke, which means there is a fire somewhere inside the #CCP. #China is unstable."
Commentary also arose around these reports of flight cancellations - including from Saurav Jha, an author and commentator from India on geostrategic affairs.
"Of direct concern to us here in India. Many Flights to Lhasa Gonggar are also being cancelled. We have to see if there is an uptick in military air traffic over the Tibetan plateau or not," he said on Twitter.
The facts: what we know and what experts say
Several experts overseas, along with journalists stationed in Beijing, have largely dismissed the rumours on social media.
China expert Aadil Brar said Mr Xi was most likely in quarantine after coming back from SCO.
"There is no coup. Looks like a lot of alt-media [alternative media] in India picked up the rumour," he wrote on Twitter.
He also shared a screenshot from flight tracking website, flightrader24, saying, "No flights are cancelled anywhere. Look at number of flights in and out of China."
Drew Thompson - an academic and former United States Department of Defense official responsible for China, Taiwan and Mongolia - said on Twitter the rumour of Mr Xi's arrest shouldn't be automatically dismissed "because it is such a sensitive political moment in China" and that "the spread of the rumour indicates belief in its plausibility".
"A coup against Xi Jinping is always possible, but the rumors spreading today don't sound like today is the day," he wrote in a subsequent tweet.
"It might be wishful thinking on some people's part. It might be the horrors of Twitter's algorithm. But it does not sound true to me, not at this point."
What is Xi Jinping's future as China's leader?
The unverified rumours come ahead of a key political meeting of China's Community Party (CCP) starting on 16 October, where Mr Xi is expected to secure an unprecedented third term.
On Sunday, the CCP said it had elected all the delegates attending the meeting, which will also see a shuffle of personnel on the party's powerful decision-making body, the 25-member Politburo.
"Each electoral unit across the country convened a party congress or party representative meeting and elected 2,296 delegates to the 20th Party Congress," state broadcaster CCTV said.
The delegates must adhere to Mr Xi's political ideology in addition to the party constitution, CCTV said.
Meanwhile, a Chinese former top security official faces life in prison after a court on Friday gave him a suspended death sentence for bribery and other crimes, adding to a flurry of corruption verdicts in recent days.
Chinese authorities have announced a spate of high-profile sentences this week, as an anti-graft campaign gathers momentum ahead of the October political meeting.
More than one million officials have been punished under the campaign, which critics argue is also a vehicle for Mr Xi to oust political enemies.
With AFP
