KEY POINTS
- Many COVID-19 restrictions have been scrapped across Australia.
- But new Omicron sublineages BQ.1 and XBB are circulating, and COVID-19 cases are on the rise.
- NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant says this marks a "new phase" in the pandemic and cases will likely rise
With the scrapping of mask mandates, border closures and daily updates in recent months, it seems as though the is virtually over.
But states across Australia are reporting increasing case numbers and the emergence of of the highly contagious Omicron variant, and research has found at least two-thirds of Australians have had the virus.
So are we on the cusp of a new COVID-19 wave, and did it ever really go away?
Are we about to be hit by a summer wave?
On Wednesday, NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant acknowledged an increase in cases and new variants circulating in the state.
"By looking at all the local information we have, and what's happening overseas, we believe COVID cases will rise in the coming weeks," she said.
"The protection the NSW community has from vaccination and previous infection continues to reduce the risk of severe illness, however the elderly and those with underlying health conditions will continue to be at higher risk."
Associate Professor Paul Griffin, infectious diseases physician and clinical microbiologist, told SBS News that COVID-19 would not disappear from the community.
"We absolutely could be on the edge of a new wave at the moment, and what's really clear is the risk of COVID is not going to go away," he said.
"It's not going to go to zero for a very long time, and we need people to understand that it's still out there, it's still going to come and go in waves, and hopefully, those waves will become less frequent and of lower magnitude, but that's not necessarily the case."
What do we know about the new variants?
On October 27, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement on BQ.1 and XBB, which have been categorised as sublineages of the Omicron variant.
According to the WHO, XBB is a recombinant of BA.2.10.1 and BA.2.75 sublineages, while BQ.1 is a sublineage of BA.5.
The WHO said Omicron remains a variant of concern and the dominant variant circulating globally.
"The potential impact of these variants is strongly influenced by the regional immune landscape," the WHO said.
"With waning immune response from initial waves of Omicron infection, and further evolution of Omicron variants, it is likely that reinfections may rise further."
Should we be concerned?
Professor Griffin says while we do not necessarily need to be concerned, it is important to remain aware and informed about new variants and rising case numbers.
"I think a level of awareness or perception of risk is sufficient ... we certainly don't want to try and create alarm or panic," he said.
"We're not suggesting border restrictions or lockdowns will be a thing we will require again, but just those basics sort of things we would ask people most flu seasons.
"For people to remain up to date with vaccines, stay home if they're unwell, make sure they get access to therapies if they're eligible and those sorts of things ... it's pretty simple things that will make a really big difference."
Meru Sheel, associate professor at the University of Sydney's School of Public Health, says it is important to remain responsible and aware of reinfection, but not to panic.
"There's going to be ups and downs in the variants because we are seeing the virus, but also the immunity in the population, changing over time," she said.
"We're not in the stage of the pandemic where everybody needs to live in fear, but knowing what we can do as individuals to protect ourselves and the community is helpful."
Are our vaccines still effective?
As case numbers continue to rise, .
Associate Professor Sheel says vaccines are primarily designed to prevent severe illness and hospitalisation.
"They're more than 80 to 90 per cent effective in preventing severe disease or hospitalisation, preventing death," she said.
"It just varies in a population depending on the level of population immunity (and) individual immunity ... and the risk of re-infection appears to be greater from some of these variants but the primary aim of these vaccines is not to prevent infection, it's to prevent hospitalisation."
Associate Professor Sheel says those who are up-to-date with their booster vaccinations should still be protected against severe disease from the new variant.
How many Australians have had COVID-19?
New research from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) has revealed at least two-thirds of Australians, including children and adolescents, have had COVID-19.
On Thursday, the NCIRS released the results of two complementary national serosurveys (analysis of blood samples), one in children and adolescents, and the other in adults.
The children and adolescents survey found at least 64 per cent of people aged 19 and under in Australia had been infected with the virus.
In unvaccinated children aged one to 14, about 80 per cent had evidence of past infection.
The survey of adults found at least two-thirds of the adult population had been infected with COVID-19.
