NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard has warned the state could see 25,000 COVID-19 infections a day by the end of January after the state recorded 1,360 new infections.
He said the state is bracing for cases to surge further, according to modelling predicting the potential for a rapid increase in virus transmission.
"What they're telling us is that by the end of January, we could be looking at 25,000 cases of the virus every single day," he told reporters.
The daily tally of COVID-19 infections in NSW jumped by 556 cases in the 24 hours to 8pm Tuesday, compared to a 804 cases recorded the previous day.
Mary-Louise McLaws is a professor of epidemiology and infectious diseases control at the University of New South Wales, and described the 25,000 projection as “very possible” based on international evidence of the behaviour of COVID variants.
“This estimate of 25,000 cases and thousands a day is reasonable - [but] it’s not something you want to aim for - you want to aim for the opposite,” she told SBS News.
Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant had earlier said health authorities believe the uptick is being driven by the Omicron variant, with 110 cases confirmed.
Infections have more than quadrupled in a week, and it is the first time in months the state has recorded more than 1,000 new cases in a single day.
While it seems the new variant is more transmissible but results in less severe illness, Mr Hazzard said those numbers should compel NSW residents to get their vaccine boosters as soon as they are eligible.
Mr Hazzard begged those who aren't vaccinated at all to have "a rethink".
The last time NSW's daily infection caseload was higher was on 11 September, when 1,599 new cases were detected.
But the number of hospitalisations and deaths in NSW are a fraction of what they were then.
Professor McLaws cited the gradual waning effectiveness of two vaccine doses and the high level of social activity during January and December as factors that could contribute to a rapid increase in transmission.
“One of the problems with modelling is that it is very difficult to include behaviour and how behaviour can actually prevent or cause a worsening of events,” she said.
Professor McLaws, who is a member of the World Health Organisation COVID-19 infection prevention control group, added that the “serious risk” posed by COVID variants showed the need for continued public health measures.
She said this included “mask-wearing” as well as COVID-19 testing for international arrivals as a “precautionary approach” to avoid the spreading of infections into the community.
There was one death on Tuesday - a fully vaccinated woman in her 90s who caught her infection at an aged care facility in southwest Sydney.
Meanwhile, 166 people are in hospital, with 24 in intensive care and seven on ventilators.
More than 93 per cent of NSW's population is fully vaccinated.
Hospitalisation increases generally lag infection spikes, but Premier Dominic Perrottet said he is certain the hospital system will cope.
"I have complete confidence in our health system, and complete confidence in the people of our great state to keep our people safe during this next journey of the pandemic," he told reporters.
Unvaccinated people in NSW are from Wednesday subject to the same restrictions as those who have been fully jabbed, for the first time in three months.
The easing of restrictions went ahead despite the spike in cases.
With AAP.
