Australians will be about $2000 better off in 2050 and around 100,000 jobs could be created under the federal government’s plan to adopt a net zero target by that year, according to climate modelling released by the Coalition.
But the modelling also shows that, despite the plan, Australia will still emit around 215 megatonnes of carbon per year - before offsets - compared to 2005 levels.
It also admits that the net-zero target will not be fully reached without "technological breakthroughs".
The long-awaited modelling was released on Friday afternoon, minutes after Prime Minister Scott Morrison wrapped up a press conference in Melbourne.
The document shows adopting a net zero by 2050 target will provide a net economic benefit totalling about $2000 per person in 2050, compared to no action.
It could also lead to the creation of up to 62,000 jobs in regional mining, energy and heavy industry sectors, and up to 76,000 by 2050 when jobs in renewables for hydrogen production are included.
The analysis was done in partnership with consultancy firm McKinsey.
“In total, McKinsey estimated that over 100,000 new direct jobs could be created in export and domestic sectors by 2050 under the advanced technology scenario, with many more potential indirect jobs,” the report reads.
Under the plan, gross emissions in Australia will drop to 253 megatonnes a year, compared to 358 megatonnes if no target was adopted.
The report says emissions are projected to drop to 51 per cent below 2005 levels in 2050 without action, but that will rise to 85 per cent under the plan.
The document also acknowledges that by 2050, a 15 per cent gap remains in Australia’s efforts towards 2050, but it’s assumed to be met through further technology improvements.
The value of coal production will drop by 50 per cent to 2050, regardless of whether Australia adopts a 2050 target.
That's because global action will reduce demand for Australian coal and gas exports.
The report also shows that the number of electric vehicles on Australian roads will go from one per cent to around 90 per cent, resulting in road transport emissions falling by more than 70 per cent by 2050.
The federal government is relying on a "technology not taxes" approach to limiting emissions and meeting global climate change pledges.
The plan is based on a reliance on controversial carbon capture and storage, clean hydrogen, low-emissions steel and aluminium production and soil carbon storage.
