Key Points
- Australia recorded nearly 20,000 more deaths than expected in 2022.
- The excess mortality is largely due to the coronavirus pandemic.
- The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the number of people who have died from the virus, experts say.
Australia recorded nearly 20,000 more deaths than expected last year, with researchers saying this can largely be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Actuaries Institute study predicted Australia would have 172,000 deaths in 2022, but the actual figures were 12 per cent higher, which is known as "excess mortality".
So what does excess mortality mean, how much is COVID-19 impacting our mortality rate, and will this continue in the future?
What is excess mortality and how is it calculated?
An analysis of excess mortality data by the institute’s COVID-19 Mortality Working Group found that total excess mortality — or the increase in the number of deaths compared to expert predictions — was 11 per cent (+17,900 deaths) for January to November 2022.
The group's spokesperson Karen Cutter told SBS News that excess mortality refers to "the difference between the total number of deaths you have in a year, and the expected number of deaths".
"We were predicting that there would be 172,000 deaths in 2022 if there hadn't been a pandemic and there's actually been 192,000. This difference of 20,000 more deaths than expected is our excess deaths number."
The predicted mortality rate had been based on data and trends from previous years, had there been no pandemic, Ms Cutter said
"So that allows for the trend in mortality in Australia prior to the pandemic continuing, and allows for changes in the size of the population and age demographics of the population."
Is COVID to blame for the excess deaths?
Ms Cutter said COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death for 10,300 of the additional 20,000 fatalities. Around another 15 per cent of the deaths were people who had COVID at the time of death or for whom the virus was a contributing cause of their deaths, but not the primary cause.
Experts say remaining up to date with COVID-19 vaccines can help decrease excess mortality caused by COVID-19. Source: AAP / Diego Fedele
Deaths from COVID-19 peaked in the last week of July, then trended downwards until the end of October before rising throughout November and December.
While most of the excess deaths were in older age groups, excess mortality was a significant percentage in all age groups in 2022.
Australia is estimated to have recorded nearly 20,000 more deaths than expected in 2022, according to research released by the Actuaries Institute. Source: Supplied / Actuaries Institute
COVID impact extends beyond deaths
Adrian Esterman, chair of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia, said the impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the number of people who have died from the virus.
“There is reasonably hard evidence that 10 per cent of infected people end up with long-term health problems,” he said.
“This is an enormous number, it will put an enormous strain on our health system … we know it increases the risk of dementia, it hugely increases the risk of heart problems, and the list goes on and on.”
Mr Esterman said the virus continues to impact the health system.
“Our health services still have a lot of staff off sick with COVID, or looking after their families who are sick with COVID," he said.
"There's still this enormous disruption that isn’t being recognised by the government."
What can we do to prevent excess deaths?
The best way to prevent future excess deaths is by making sure the community, particularly the elderly and vulnerable, are protected from COVID-19, Mr Esterman said.
“A lot of elderly people are still wandering around without face masks ... there has to be a huge push by the government to persuade elderly people to protect themselves when they go out and wear a good quality face mask and wear it properly," he said.
“The second thing is it’s absolutely crucial that they’re totally up to date with their vaccination, and the final thing is antivirals … but at the moment it’s very difficult to get antivirals."
Mr Esterman said clearer information was needed to protect the elderly community.
"We need much better information for elderly people in simple language, explaining what to do in every situation, because at the moment it's simply not there," he said.
"We are still in the intense stages of the pandemic ... it's just that no one is recognising it."
Will we keep seeing such high mortality rates from COVID-19?
Ms Cutter said COVID-19 will likely continue to have an effect on mortality rates over the coming years.
"I think we will continue to see higher mortality than we would have had prior to the pandemic, because we do have a new cause of death that people are dying from, but it's very hard to quantify what that impact will be," she said.
"We don't know how many waves we're going to have in the coming year, if a more severe strain of the virus might emerge, how our healthcare systems might cope with COVID waves, etc ... There are a lot of unknowns that mean we can't actually quantify how much excess mortality we will have."
Mr Esterman said unless more protective measures are taken, COVID-19 will to continue to impact mortality rates.
"It's mainly elderly and vulnerable people who are dying, so unless we do something to try and stop that, we will see these excess deaths happening.
"But the other issue is we don't know what's going to happen with subvariants and variants."
Have we seen excess mortality this dramatic before?
Excess mortality does not usually vary by more than one or two per cent, according to data from the last 20 years, Ms Cutter said.
"That's usually related to whether we have a bad flu season or not ... mortality is generally fairly predictable from year to year, so to have a 12 per cent excess mortality this year is quite exceptional," she said.
"I think we would probably have to go back to World War II to see when we would have had similar impacts."
