The circulation of the text of a between the Solomon Islands and China has raised concerns among members of the Australian and New Zealand governments about the prospect of a Chinese military base in the Pacific nation, 2,000 km from Australia.
The deal is currently in a draft stage for consideration by the Solomon Islands cabinet, and it is expected to be an issue as the island nation's parliament sits for the first time since deadly riots in November.
The Royal Solomon Islands Police Force said units will be guarding the parliament building.
“There will be a zero-tolerance policy to instigators of violence or unrest," it said.
The Pacific nation is under a state of emergency due to COVID-19, a status that was renewed on Friday and will be in place for a fortnight.
How are leaders in the region reacting?
In her first public remarks on the draft memorandum of understanding, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said, like Australia, her government views the potential broad scope of the proposed security deal with "grave concern".
"We see such acts as the potential militarisation of the region," she told Radio NZ on Monday.
"We see very little reason in terms of the Pacific security for such a need and such a presence. We do see this as gravely concerning."
Speaking after a cabinet meeting on Monday, Ms Ardern said no decision had been made at this stage on whether New Zealand defence personnel would be withdrawn if China deployed military or police officers under the prospective agreement.
"We can't predetermine any nation's future decision making, however, I would say that amongst the Pacific nations we have worked very hard collectively together to make sure we are meeting one another's needs."
With COVID travel restrictions lifting, New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta on Monday began a four-day trip to Fiji, which will include a meeting with Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Monday he would be speaking with Mr Bainimarama and Papua New Guinea PM James Marape over the next 24 hours, after talks with Ms Ardern over the weekend.
"The reports that we've seen are not a surprise to us and are a reminder of constant pressure and threats that present to our region to our own national security," he said, pointing to Australia's Step Up policy in the Pacific.
He said the policy has resulted in an increased focus on the Pacific region in Australia's foreign aid budget.
"We’ve been aware of the risks right across the Pacific. This is why we’ve doubled our development assistance into the Pacific, doubled it."
Australian National University economics professor Stephen Howes has been tracking Australia's foreign aid budget for the Pacific.
He said, accounting for inflation, it would be more accurate to say that there has been a 30 per cent increase in aid to the Pacific over the last nine years of Coalition government, but that has come amid an overall decline in Australia's foreign aid budget.
"Overall, we'd say the aid budget's been cut by about 25 per cent [over the last eight years]. But aid to the Pacific has not only been protected, it's been expanded and it's gone up by almost a third.
"So what that has meant is massive cuts in aid to other parts of the world - whether it's East Asia, South Asia. Africa has been virtually eliminated.
"So in relative terms, the Pacific has been a winner. I'd say the increase is more like a third than a half, once you adjust for inflation, as you need to do."
What has the reaction been in the Solomon Islands?
The opposition leader in the Solomon Islands, Matthew Wale, said he warned the Australian High Commissioner and Australian officials as early as August last year that a deal was being negotiated between the Solomon Islands and China that could see an increased Chinese military presence in the country.
"I have intimated as much to the Australian High Commissioner and officials that this was in the offing, even as far back as last year - all the indications were there and the Australian government did nothing about it - so I'm extremely disappointed in the Australian government," he told the ABC.
On Friday, the Solomon Islands government confirmed the draft deal was under negotiation.
"Broadening partnerships is needed to improve the quality of lives of our people and [to] address soft and hard security threats facing the country," it said in a statement.
It said the 2017 security agreement with Australia would be maintained, following the end of the 14-year Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) when Australia provided support to restore law and order after a coup and civil unrest.
Australian Army soldiers talk with local citizens during a community engagement patrol through Honiara, Solomon Islands, on 27 November 2021. Credit: Australian Department of Defence/AAP
The Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taiwan in 2019, signalling China's growing influence in the Pacific.
As part of requests from the Solomon Islands government for aid to restore order after the , more than 200 peacekeepers were deployed to the country.
The officers came from Australia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand.
On Friday, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said the Australian police and defence personnel would remain in the country until next year. She also announced $22 million in budget support to help the country recover from the pandemic and the November riots.
Ms Payne said Australia plans to build a second patrol boat outpost on Solomon Islands’ eastern border and help establish an "integrated police, health and disaster management" radio network across the country.
China too provided to equip and train the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force in December 2021.
How significant is the development?
James Batley, a former Australian High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and now an academic at the ANU, said the broad scope of the draft agreement marks a significant shift in China's influence and presence in the region.
"This is not an entirely new development in the Pacific. Fiji has been training [their local] police in China for some time now. China has provided military assistance to Papua New Guinea. China's involvement in some sort of security assistance is not new, " he said.
"I suppose what's new in this case, if this agreement is realised in the same terms that were leaked publicly last week, is just the broad scope that it gives to China, which would allow it, it would seem, to base vessels in Solomon Islands.
"That would certainly be a major new development and one of deep concern to the Australian government."
Pacific analyst Dr Tess Newton Cain at Griffith University said discussions on how to navigate China's increasing presence in the region would be unfolding between Pacific nations and through the Pacific Islands Forum.
"This whole situation is still very much in the early stages, and we don't know what's going to happen," she said.
"I think it's really important that we realise that the key players in this are the people of Solomon Islands, and what they need in terms of their security.
"And their security concerns may be quite different. They may be more concerned about protecting fisheries or impacts of climate change or human security issues than things that are more about military ambition - on the part of China or anyone else."
She said the tactic by the Solomon Islands leadership of creating more partners in the region is strategic.
"Solomon Islands has made it very clear that their foreign policy is based on being friends to all and enemies to none. And they see this geopolitical moment as an opportunity to work with a range of partners.
"They're talking about wanting similar arrangements with Papua New Guinea and with Fiji. They're using the treaty with Australia as a kind of model for this."
David Llewellyn-Smith, the founding publisher of the Asia-Pacific publication The Diplomat, said he was extremely concerned about the draft deal being finalised, saying such a development would be "Australia’s Cuban missile crisis".
"China will have parked an enormous stationary aircraft carrier within direct striking distance of every eastern Australian city," he wrote in a recent post on business and investment blog MacroBusiness.
He said "soft power levers" should be used to avoid the deal being finalised and that if it were to come about, Australia should consider an invasion to "engineer regime change in Honiara".
What are the implications for Australia's relationship with the Solomon Islands?
Professor Howes said the development has brought increased attention on relations between Australia and the Solomon Islands, with implications for the aid budget in Tuesday's federal budget.
"I really hope the focus stays on development - that's what Solomon Islands really needs. There's massive underemployment there. There's a lot of poverty.
"Whatever you think about the security issues, the upside of it is it is making Australia take the Pacific more seriously.
"Australia has a lot more to offer the Pacific apart from aid, including things that China can't really offer. And one of those is labour mobility, the ability to work in Australia."
He said based on his analysis of the government's own projection of its spending plans, the forward estimates submitted from the last budget, the government is planning a five per cent real cut to the aid budget this year, after adjusting for inflation.
"That's a large cut. It's hard to believe the government will go ahead with that, given all those spending pressures, ranging from Ukraine through the COVID pandemic, through to this emerging situation in the Solomon Islands."
Australia's aid budget is currently an all-time low of - or 19 cents in every $100 - versus 0.34 per cent in 2011. It is ranked OECD Development Assistance Committee member countries based on that figure.
Mr Batley said it is likely that in the future Australia will establish a permanent base of Australian security personnel in Solomon Islands.
"Look, I think the important thing is that we don't panic. I think we need to bear in mind that Australia has a lot of assets in the relationships in the Pacific, " he said.
"This contingent of Australian security personnel has now been extended to the end of next year. I think that's probably a minimum. We may well see something that looks like a permanent garrison of Australian security personnel in the Solomon Islands developing over time."
Dr Newton Cain said the Melanesian Spearhead Group and the Pacific Islands Forum will be key regional groupings to monitor in assessing what the draft deal - and any potential final deal - might mean for regional security.
"That's not about detracting from Solomon Islands sovereignty. They are a sovereign nation and they make sovereign decisions as other sovereign nations do. But it is about recognising that this is a shared conversation.
"All of those regional partners have had roles to play in Solomon Islands security previously, so they have experience to draw on."
