President Joe Biden will remove all US troops from Afghanistan before this year's 20th anniversary of the 11 September attacks, finally ending America's longest war despite mounting fears of a Taliban victory, officials said Tuesday.
The drawdown delays only by around five months an agreement with the Taliban by former president Donald Trump to withdraw all troops, amid a growing consensus in Washington that little more can be achieved.
Mr Biden, who will make an announcement Wednesday, had earlier mused about keeping a residual force to strike at Al-Qaeda or an emergent Islamic State extremist threat or making withdrawal contingent on progress on the ground or in slow-moving peace talks.
In the end, he decided to do neither and will order a complete withdrawal other than limited US personnel to guard the US installations including the imposing embassy in Kabul, a senior official said.
"The president has judged that a conditions-based approach, which has been the approach of the past two decades, is a recipe for staying in Afghanistan forever," the official said.
US soldiers attend a training session for Afghan Army soldiers in Herat, Afghanistan, in February 2019. Source: AAP, EPA
Mr Biden "has been consistent in his view that there's not a military solution to Afghanistan, that we have been there for far too long," Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday, without confirming the withdrawal date.
For Afghans the fighting will likely grind on. The official spoke shortly after US intelligence released a threat assessment report warning that the embattled Afghan government "will struggle" to hold off the "confident" Taliban if the US-led coalition withdraws.
The Trump administration reached a deal with the Taliban in February 2020 under which all US troops would leave by May 2021 in return for the insurgents' promise not to back Al-Qaeda and other extremists – the original reason for the 2001 invasion.
The Biden official said the withdrawal would begin in May and that the delay was largely logistic, with troops possibly out of Afghanistan well before 11 September.
The official warned the Taliban, who are observing a truce with US but not Afghan forces, not to strike coalition forces as they leave.
"We have communicated to the Taliban in no uncertain terms that they do conduct attacks against US or allied forces as we carry out this drawdown," the official said, "that we will hit back hard."
Taliban 'confident'
Fighting will likely grind on. A threat assessment report published Tuesday by the director of national intelligence said the Taliban "is confident it can achieve military victory."
"Afghan forces continue to secure major cities and other government strongholds, but they remain tied down in defensive missions and have struggled to hold recaptured territory or reestablish a presence in areas abandoned in 2020," it said.
Afghan civilians, wary of the Taliban's return to power, have long paid a disproportionate price in the decades of bloody fighting and the rise of the Taliban has raised particular fears among many Afghan women.
The Taliban, who enforce an austere brand of Sunni Islam, banned women from school, offices, music and most of daily life during their 1996-2001 rule over much of Afghanistan. Two decades later, 40 percent of schoolchildren are girls.
In this 2020 photo, Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers walk in a US military base which had recently handed over to Afghan forces in Nangarhar province. Source: AFP via Getty Images
The Biden official said the United States would use non-military "tools at our disposal" to promote women's rights including bolstering civilian assistance.
But Afghan women have been largely shut out of talks between the Taliban and Kabul on a lasting peace deal in the country, with activists arguing this could compromise their fragile, hard-won rights going forward.
Peace effort in Turkey
Mr Biden's decision came as Turkey announced the dates of a US-backed peace conference - also expected to include few women - that would bring together the Afghan government, the Taliban and international partners.
The 24 April - 4 May conference will aim to lead to "a roadmap to a future political settlement and an end to the conflict," the Turkish foreign ministry said in a statement.
In a sign of the wide international concerns, diplomats said that all of Afghanistan's neighbours would take part including Iran and China, which both have tense relations with the United States.
Also in attendance will be both Pakistan, the Taliban's historic supporter, and its rival India, a staunch ally of the Kabul government which has strongly backed the US presence.
But many observers believe that the Taliban think they have already effectively won and can wait out the US withdrawal, as little progress has come out of on-off talks in Qatar.
A decade ago, the United States had some 100,000 troops in Afghanistan as part of a "surge" strategy by then president Barack Obama to defeat the Taliban.
The troop figure by the end of Mr Trump's presidency had gone down to 2,500 as support for military action waned.
Even onetime backers of the war have voiced concern about limited gains on the ground as well as infighting and corruption in Kabul and questioned whether the $2 trillion spent in Afghanistan could have had better uses at a time of growing alarm about China.
Senator Tim Kaine, an ally of Mr Biden, said the US accomplished a primary goal 10 years ago by killing Osama bin Laden and that it was time to "refocus American national security on the most pressing challenges we face."
But representative Mike McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he was "shocked and appalled" by Mr Biden's decision.
The withdrawal means "abandoning our Afghan partners during critical peace negotiations and allowing the Taliban a total victory," he said.
The Taliban had earlier threatened to resume hostilities against all foreign troops if they were not out of Afghanistan before the start of May.
A source in the movement has also said the Taliban might attend the conference starting 24 April.
Meanwhile, UK newspaper The Times has reported the UK will withdraw nearly all its troops following the news from the US.
There are about 750 British soldiers in Afghanistan that would struggle without US support because of reliance on US bases and infrastructure, according to The Times.
A spokesperson for the Department of Defence told SBS News it would not comment on any move Australia might make in the future regarding withdrawals.
"Any decisions around Australia's contribution in Afghanistan will be made in close coordination with the government of Afghanistan, the United States and our other partners," the spokesperson said.
Additional reporting by Tys Occhiuzzi.
