Continuing our weekly analysis of Punjab election results, the Editor of Hindustan Times Chandigarh, spoke to SBS Punjabi about the nation-wide impact of these results on March 11. Here is a summary of this interview:
Effect on BJP- Shirmoni Akali Dal:
If SAD-BJP coalition loses its mandate in Punjab, it will have serious implications for both of the parties. Especially if the margin of loss is sizeable, the Badal leadership may face a severe challenge within SAD, and even the future of the two-party alliance will come under a cloud: should they contest the next elections (including the 2019 Lok Sabha elections) together, or go separate ways?
Impact on PM Narendra Modi:
Not only the Badals, but PM Narendra Modi has a lot to lose, if the alliance is thumped out of power. During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Punjab was the only state where the Modi magic didn't work. If the same happens in the 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections, it will be the second time that the Punjab voters will be rejecting PM Modi, and that can't be taken lightly. Admittedly Mr Modi has concentrated his efforts in the UP election as a star campaigner, because a big win there can help change the make-up of the Rajya Sabha (because the State Assembly legislators choose Rajya Sabha members). Even though he really didn't campaign in Punjab much, the Punjab election results will be a litmus test for PM Modi's policies.
Impact on Congress party:
The Congress party has the highest stakes in the March 11 results of Punjab elections. It is the biggest challenge for both Capt Amarinder Singh and Congress president Rahul Gandhi. The fact is that the Congress has faced embarrassing losses in every state election since 2014, except in Bihar elections where Congress was the minor party in a coalition with Nitish Kumar. A win for the Congress in Punjab will give Rahul Gandhi a much -needed booster dose for his leadership at the central level, and will also mean a political comeback for Capt Amarinder Singh.
Impact on Rahul Gandhi:
A loss to the Congress party will certainly put a full stop to Capt Amarinder Singh's political career, since he's already stated that these will be the last elections that he'll contest. But for Rahul Gandhi, a loss in Punjab will pose a huge challenge to his leadership of the party. And if Congress also loses in Uttar Pradesh, that would mean that their rule is limited to just four states of India - which means they will be virtually swept out of power from the entire nation. And questions about Rahul Gandhi's leadership will gain momentum.
Impact on AAP and Arvind Kejriwal
Punjab is the only state outside Delhi, in which Aam Admi party won Lok Sabha seats, when they won four in 2014. A win in Punjab elections will fuel Arvind Kejriwal's ambition to increase AAP's imprint nationally, and to even present himself as the prime ministerial candidate in the 2019 elections. A loss to AAP will mean that the party's influence is limited to Delhi, and that it won't be able to gain further ground. It remains to be seen, whether AAP wins the elections outright or if it emerges as the single largest political party, but falls short of the 59 seats needed for a simple majority to form government.
Will Badal family move to Delhi if it loses mandate in Punjab?
Just because Shiromani Akali Dal has won the DSGMC elections, does not mean that the Badal family will move lock, stock and barrel to Delhi, in case they lose the Punjab elections. First of all, only 2.5 to 3 lakh Sikhs voted in the DSGMC elections, so it can't be regarded as a true representation of the panthic vote. In fact, there are very clear reasons behind SAD's win in the DSGMC elections, and none of them indicate popular support for the Badal family. Contrary to that, the Badals didn't even get involved in the campaigning for the Delhi gurudwara committee elections. Manjit Singh GK led from the front, cashing in on his personal popularity and because of the groundswell against the Sarna group. Most importantly, Manjit Singh GK denounced the SAD's coalition with the controversial Dera Sacha Sauda in Punjab, which played an important role in his win in Delhi. So, it is quite clear that the Badals don't enjoy any popularity in Delhi, and a loss in Punjab won't mean that they'll shift their political base to Delhi. In fact, the Badal family will be held personally responsible for a loss in Punjab, because of a historic shift of the panthic vote for the first time, which could potentially lead to a change in the leadership within the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab.
PLEASE NOTE: The above is a transcription of SBS Punjabi's interview with Mr Ramesh Vinayak, RE Hindustan Times, Chandigarh. The views expressed are his personal opinion, not SBS's. The audio of this interview can be heard by clicking on the audio link above.
